After a big win last night against the Toronto Raptors the Memphis Grizzlies have won 10 of their last 11 games. They are standing alone by multiple games at the #2 spot in the Western Conference and are by most accounts a top-5 team in the entire NBA.
But Memphis has been here before. And as the Grizzlies “Big Three” of Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane approaches their primes the time to start winning at a higher level is now. Can this team as constructed do that? Or is a move made to upgrade the roster?
Here are three predictions for today’s NBA Deadline.
Marcus Smart will not be traded as part of cost cutting. Memphis is already below the luxury tax for the season and does not need to operate with money on their mind. While a trade for a player like Lonzo Ball (before his extension with the Bulls) or Bruce Brown (before his trade to New Orleans as part of the Brandon Ingram deal) makes sense to clean up the Grizzlies cap entering another important Summer for the franchise, it’s not like Smart - whose deal expires in 2026 - impedes significant future business.
Namely, the much-deserved pay raise in a contract extension with Jaren Jackson Jr. that is coming.
While Smart’s absence has been frustrating, he holds value defensively and as an energetic competitor off the bench. Combine that with loads of playoff experience, and even if his role isn’t what it was believed it would be before the season began he still matters for Memphis. He should not be part of a cost dump.
BUT.
Rumors will swirl around a Smart-for-Cameron Johnson of the Brooklyn Nets deal. This kind of deal would not be a cost dump. It would essentially guarantee the Grizzlies will be a luxury tax payer, probably in the 2026-2027 season. But Johnson’s elite floor spacing and offensive contributions would be worth it.
He’s a better Santi Aldama. And if Santi’s free agency is going to result in a $15 million a year salary, give me Johnson at $20-$23 million over the next two years instead. With Jimmy Butler (thankfully) off the table and a Kevin Durant trade unlikely to begin with, this is the big fish to chase.
Given Grizzlies GM’s Zach Kleiman desire to protect first round picks, however, it’s less likely than likely such a trade gets done.
That doesn’t mean Memphis won’t have business to do.
Jake LaRavia will be traded today. Not for much. A 2nd rounder or two, perhaps. But as roster spots open up post major deals, Memphis would be wise to ship a player out who likely won’t be on the Grizzlies next season due to their opting out of his rookie option year for 2025-2026. With Smart and Vince Williams Jr. back, and Desmond Bane eventually returning as well, there likely won’t be minutes for Jake.
Send him somewhere he will play. Build up his value. And receive future draft capital for dealings in the future. Everyone wins.
