What a glorious couple of days it’s been for NBA fans.
As of this writing, the list of big-name players traded would be the favorite to win the Finals if they suited up together: Luka Doncic, Anthony Davis, Jimmy Butler, De’Aaron Fox, Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, and Khris Middleton, plus a bunch of quality role players.
I spent several times my allotted word count grading all the major trades here, so check that out if you like in-depth analysis from an idiot. For here, though, I wanted to explore several on-court questions raised by these trades.
1) Who can defend (or shoot) on the Lakers?
Even if you think the Mark Williams trade was an overpay, there’s no question the aggregate price paid for Luka and Williams was a bargain. But the Lakers are fighting for home-court advantage this season and traded away several of their best defenders and shooters.
Jarred Vanderbilt can defend but not shoot. Austin Reaves, the opposite. Rui Hachimura is accurate but not prolific. Dorian Finney-Smith is a fine two-way guy, but he can’t guard quicker players. Mark Williams isn’t the kind of mistake-erasing defender Anthony Davis was; the less said about LeBron and Luka on that end, the better.
The Lakers should continue to be good this year, but the defense, in particular, will be even worse than it already was.
2) How real is the Heat’s two-big Bam/Ware lineup?
Heat faithful are surprisingly sanguine about the Jimmy Butler trade, happy to have rid themselves of the malcontent. They’re turning their focus to the future, which seems increasingly likely to be centered on a pair of centers.
Bam Adebayo’s experiment with the three-pointer hasn’t exactly yielded major dividends (he’s shooting 29% from deep), but he’s at least looked confident and willing to take them. Ware, on the other hand, has made 25 of his 61 attempts from deep while showing better rebounding and shotblocking numbers than expected.
The defense, in particular, has impressed. Although Ware still commits rookie mistakes, he’s been good enough anchoring the middle that coach Spoelstra has freed Bam Adebayo to do what he does best: lock down fools on the perimeter and create havoc off the ball. After years of Adebayo being pigeonholed into a drop coverage, he’s playing far more aggressively now, and it’s paying dividends: the Ware/Adebayo lineups are allowing an infinitesimal 100.3 points per 100 possessions, in the 99th percentile for all lineups.
That’s a small sample size, but it comes despite playing with many poor perimeter defenders like Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, and Terry Rozier. Opponents are missing their threes against that lineup, but it would still be an elite defensive rating even if they were league-average from deep.
Keep an eye on Miami’s rotation going forward.
3) How will Steve Kerr juggle his power forwards?
The Warriors’ four best players are Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, and Jonathan Kuminga. None of the latter three have much shooting, and all are best as power forwards. How will Steve Kerr mix and match his rotation?
Will Green have to play center all the time? Throwing Kevon Looney or Trayce Jackson-Davis into the mix seems like a recipe for offensive disaster no matter how clever the interior passing of Butler and Green. By the time you’re reading this, they may have made a move for a stretch center like Nikola Vucevic, but Vucevic doesn’t stress defenses as a shooter all that much; he’ll help, but not as much as people might hope.
I’m not sure it’s viable to play more than two of Butler, Green, or Kuminga together (not even including Looney/Jackson-Davis). Jimmy brings some much-needed rim pressure and free throws, but the spacing constraints are real.
Watching Kerr try to problem-solve in real time should be fascinating.
4) What is Toronto’s end game?
It’s not that the Raptors are untalented, although injuries have made them quite bad this year (recent defensive success notwithstanding). It’s that none of their pieces seem to fit together particularly well.
Immanuel Quickley is a good player, but he’s more of a combo guard than a pure distributor. He likes to have the ball in his hands and dance around with it. RJ Barrett is a good player, but despite an uptick in assists this year, he’s still more of a rim-seeking missile. He likes to have the ball in his hands and steamroll to the hoop. Scottie Barnes is a good player with the potential to be a geat one. He likes to have the ball in his hands and dissect the defense with his back to the basket, burrowing to the hoop for layups or hitting whizzing cutters. Brandon Ingram is a good player with a bit of an unfair reputation. He likes to have the ball in his hands and attack the defense with jab steps and spinning middies.
Do you see a problem with that?
Perhaps there is some lurking alchemy that I’m too blind to see, but right now, Toronto may have assembled a group that ends up less than the sum of its (fairly substantial) parts. Health is required to give this team a fighting chance to develop chemistry.
This might be moot if Barnes can make a true superstar leap. He’s not there yet.
5) How good can Dallas be?
Let’s leave aside the disappointment Mavs fans feel for a minute and examine the new roster.
An eventual starting frontcourt of PJ Washington/Anthony Davis/Dereck Lively (or Daniel Gafford) will be monstrous defensively. If you pair that trio with either Naji Marshall or Caleb Martin at shooting guard to go with Kyrie Irving at point, they will make one of the best defensive fivesomes this side of Oklahoma City.
But can the Mavericks score? Klay Thompson’s shooting seems almost like a necessity at this point. Anthony Davis is an elite bucket-getter, but he’s never been particularly great at self-creation. He needs someone to feed him the ball in his spots. Irving can do it, but he’s old; he can’t be the only on-ball creator for 48 minutes.
Can Jaden Hardy step in? The small guard has had plenty of flashes over the years, but defensive inconsistency and occasionally questionable shot selection have made it hard for coach Jason Kidd to trust him. If not, a disturbing amount of the Mavs’ success rides on Spencer Dinwiddie’s playmaking.
Kidd’s ability to find lineups that can generate enough offense without compromising the team’s defensive strengths will be a key storyline down the stretch for a Dallas team clinging to a play-in spot by half a game.
6) Has anyone done enough to challenge Oklahoma City, Boston, or Cleveland?
It doesn’t feel that way right now!
