Philip Rossman-Reich here, the host of the daily Locked On Magic podcast, with your daily Locked On Magic newsletter. Each day we bring you the biggest stories about the Magic and the NBA, including the hottest links to other stories you need to read. Plus, Josh Lloyd delivers daily fantasy notes to crush your league.
Paolo Banchero: “The wait is almost over”
Dec 10, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) looks on from the bench during game against the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | Benny Sieu/Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
The wait is almost over.
Even Paolo Banchero cannot wait. He posted on Instagram around 6 p.m. on Tuesday a collection of his season highlights – read: sideline attire – and the ominous message, “The wait is almost over.”
Banchero proclaimed two weeks ago that he was fully healed and only going through return to competition conditioning, whatever that meant. That was the only confirmation coach Jamahl Mosley would give too. But he was inching toward contact.
His return was always coming sooner than later. Now it feels imminent. Perhaps by the time this newsletter is sent out the Magic will have already announced his return for Thursday’s game or updated his status on the injury report to QUESTIONABLE.
The point is: You know it, I know it and Paolo knows it, his return is almost here.
It could not be coming at a better time for the Magic. Orlando has weathered the storm without him to get to 21-15. The team has established a defensive identity that lasts beyond its star player.
But the Magic’s offense needs the boost that only a player like Banchero could give them.
In the five games Banchero played at the start of the season, Orlando posted a respectable 111.8 offensive rating, ranked 15th in the league through those first five games of the season. If that were the Magic’s current offensive rating, they would rank 16th.
Orlando has fallen to 26th in the league without him, averaging 108.6 points per 100 possessions.
It is not just about those overall numbers. It is about Banchero’s gravity. His presence and how defenses have to account for him with multiple defenders opens space and better shot opportunities for everyone else.
The Magic have the worst 3-point field goal percentage in the league – and what would be the worst in more than a decade without any improvement. But a lot of that comes down to shot quality.
The Magic averaged 25.6 3-point attempts per game where the closest defender was six or more feet away in the games Banchero played. They averaged 19.4 attempts per game since Banchero’s injury.
Orlando averaged 32.2 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts per game with Banchero in the lineup according to data from Second Spectrum (third in the league and making 36.6 percent). The team averaged 26.7 attempts per game at 31.2 percent shooting since Banchero’s injury.
Five games is not a large enough sample size to draw too many conclusions. But the results are also pretty clear. Banchero will create better shot opportunities and be an injection of confidence for a team desperate for shooting.
The Magic will hope that some of the development and growth throughout the roster will help Banchero too. Franz Wagner’s return – likely in early February – will give the team another attacker who could potentially pass and set up Banchero for his own spot-up shots (he averages fewer than one catch-and-shoot 3-pointers per game, he sets almost all of his shots off the dribble).
That will be a boost to Banchero too. He needs to lighten his load especially as he gets comfortable back on the court.
But undoubtedly too, Banchero will be a shot in the arm to a struggling offense. He has gravity. Defenses orbit around him. And that could change everything for the Magic this season.
Jan 7, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (1) reacts after a fouled was not called against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second half at Smoothie King Center. | Matthew Hinton/Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images
How can you know in the NBA if something’s real?
If a team really is on a sustainable upward trajectory, or if they’ve overachieved? If a player whose name has become synonymous with trade talks really wants out (or in somewhere else, depending on how you’re looking at it)? How can you tell the difference between talent and development, and when does it start to matter? And how do you know that regular season dominance will translate into postseason competence, let alone contention?
I’ve been thinking about NBA mirages, the things we will ourselves into believing over the course of a season, as a few of the league’s prominent storylines play out. What constitutes an NBA mirage is that it has justenough staying power at a distance, but like the real thing, when you start to interrogate it up close its corporeal outlines vanish.
Trades are a huge generator of NBA mirages. I hate to think how many ESPN’s NBA Trade Machine tool is pumping out per hour as the trade deadline approaches. Jimmy Butler’s request for a trade out of Miami is one of the reasons I started thinking about them, specifically, where they shift from fantasy to reality. The prospect of a trade, for Butler, is as solid as the car he gets in to drive himself to Heat games. For Pat Riley and the Heat’s front office, the trade’s an illusion (delusion, maybe, if you asked Riley). What’s real to them is Butler’s behaviour, which they emphasized by suspending him for seven games.
Does Butler, since then reported to have asked both the Bucks and the Grizzlies not to trade for him, make his potential trade more real by narrowing its scope? Or is he limiting himself and his chances of an exit — any exit — from Miami?
Shifting from trades to returns, Zion Williamson’s back on the floor in New Orleans. Williamson’s dunks, like his first in-game slam last night since early November, have a knack for calling to mind immediately the contours of the earth under your feet. I tend to curl my toes against the ground, checking it’s still there. Why then, does he make me think of mirages? The hope for Williamson, since he entered the league, has been consistency — in his health, his game, his career.
Katie Heindl is a credentialed NBA and WNBA writer, her bylines have appeared with The New York Times Magazine, SLAM, The Athletic, Yahoo Sports, Dime, Rolling Stone, among others. She writes the bestselling Substack, Basketball Feelings and is working on a book of the same name.
Must Read Amid Pacific wildfires, Steve Kerr and JJ Redick’s families have evacuated the area. (CNN)
Biz What the EuroLeague and IMG’s new deals mean for the future of basketball in Europe. (The Athletic)
Injury Orlando Magic’s Paolo Banchero hinted at his return from a torn right oblique on social media, raising hopes for his comeback. Follow his recovery progress. (Sports Illustrated)
Analysis Jalen Suggs’ time in the spotlight with the Orlando Magic has been a period of learning and growth. Delve into his development journey and its impact on his game. (Orlando Magic Daily)
Prediction Updated win-loss projections for the 2024-25 NBA season are out. See where the Orlando Magic stand in the latest predictions for the season. (Bleacher Report)
Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Tuesday’s Key Fantasy Basketball Notes
Jan 7, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) signals to his team during the first half against the Charlotte Hornets at the Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-Imagn Images | Sam Sharpe/Sam Sharpe-Imagn Images
Tuesday’s NBA action brought a mix of surprises and disappointments across seven games. The Phoenix Suns, despite their recent lineup changes, continue to underperform, raising questions about their strategy and team dynamics.
The Los Angeles Lakers suffered a significant setback, losing to a depleted Dallas Mavericks team. This loss highlights ongoing concerns about the Lakers’ consistency and ability to compete against even weakened opponents.
In a thrilling finish, Trae Young of the Atlanta Hawks showcased his clutch abilities by sinking a half-court shot to secure a victory. Young’s performance was stellar throughout the game, finishing with an impressive 24 points and 20 assists.
Injury Updates and Roster Moves
Several key players were sidelined due to injuries or illness. Jeremy Sochan of the San Antonio Spurs is out with a back issue, potentially impacting his trade value. Jerami Grant’s facial contusion continues to sideline him, opening up opportunities for players like Deni Avdija.
The Philadelphia 76ers are facing challenges with both Joel Embiid and Paul George out, though not due to a back-to-back situation. This absence further complicates the 76ers’ season, which has already been marred by inconsistency.
Ausar Thompson’s absence due to illness raises concerns, especially given his history of health issues. While the exact nature of his current condition remains unclear, fans and fantasy managers alike are hoping it’s not as serious as his previous bout with blood clots.
Waiver Wire Trends
The waiver wire has seen some interesting movement, with Bryce Sensabaugh emerging as the most-added player despite missing a game due to illness. Ryan Dunn and Nikola Jovic have also seen increased interest, though their long-term value remains questionable.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Magic podcasts.
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks: What went wrong? Energy reveals their weaknesses The Orlando Magic seemed overwhelmed by their mounting injuries and could not find their footing in a 29-point loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. Their energy simply was not there.
Franz Wagner’s coming return gives hope to Orlando Magic’s offense Franz Wagner’s rapid recovery from his injury is a beacon of hope for the Orlando Magic as they navigate the NBA season. With the team ranking 27th in offensive rating, the return of key players like Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero could be game-changing and lift their biggest weakness.
Why Jamahl Mosley is Orlando Magic’s First Half MVP The Orlando Magic have spent the first half of their season trying to hold the boat steady. Major injuries to Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner threw the season for a loop and forced the Magic to adjust quickly.
