The wait is almost over.
Even Paolo Banchero cannot wait. He posted on Instagram around 6 p.m. on Tuesday a collection of his season highlights – read: sideline attire – and the ominous message, “The wait is almost over.”
Banchero proclaimed two weeks ago that he was fully healed and only going through return to competition conditioning, whatever that meant. That was the only confirmation coach Jamahl Mosley would give too. But he was inching toward contact.
His return was always coming sooner than later. Now it feels imminent. Perhaps by the time this newsletter is sent out the Magic will have already announced his return for Thursday’s game or updated his status on the injury report to QUESTIONABLE.
The point is: You know it, I know it and Paolo knows it, his return is almost here.
It could not be coming at a better time for the Magic. Orlando has weathered the storm without him to get to 21-15. The team has established a defensive identity that lasts beyond its star player.
But the Magic’s offense needs the boost that only a player like Banchero could give them.
In the five games Banchero played at the start of the season, Orlando posted a respectable 111.8 offensive rating, ranked 15th in the league through those first five games of the season. If that were the Magic’s current offensive rating, they would rank 16th.
Orlando has fallen to 26th in the league without him, averaging 108.6 points per 100 possessions.
It is not just about those overall numbers. It is about Banchero’s gravity. His presence and how defenses have to account for him with multiple defenders opens space and better shot opportunities for everyone else.
The Magic have the worst 3-point field goal percentage in the league – and what would be the worst in more than a decade without any improvement. But a lot of that comes down to shot quality.
The Magic averaged 25.6 3-point attempts per game where the closest defender was six or more feet away in the games Banchero played. They averaged 19.4 attempts per game since Banchero’s injury.
Orlando averaged 32.2 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts per game with Banchero in the lineup according to data from Second Spectrum (third in the league and making 36.6 percent). The team averaged 26.7 attempts per game at 31.2 percent shooting since Banchero’s injury.
Five games is not a large enough sample size to draw too many conclusions. But the results are also pretty clear. Banchero will create better shot opportunities and be an injection of confidence for a team desperate for shooting.
The Magic will hope that some of the development and growth throughout the roster will help Banchero too. Franz Wagner’s return – likely in early February – will give the team another attacker who could potentially pass and set up Banchero for his own spot-up shots (he averages fewer than one catch-and-shoot 3-pointers per game, he sets almost all of his shots off the dribble).
That will be a boost to Banchero too. He needs to lighten his load especially as he gets comfortable back on the court.
But undoubtedly too, Banchero will be a shot in the arm to a struggling offense. He has gravity. Defenses orbit around him. And that could change everything for the Magic this season.
