Ryan Blackburn here, the host of the daily Locked On Nuggets podcast, with your daily Locked On Nuggets newsletter. Each day we bring you the biggest stories about the Nuggets and the NBA, including the hottest links to other stories you need to read. Plus, Josh Lloyd delivers daily fantasy notes to crush your league.
Are The Nuggets Who We Thought They Were?
Nov 27, 2024; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone calls a play against the Utah Jazz during the first half at the Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Creveling-Imagn Images | Christopher Creveling-Imagn Images
Leading up to the 2024-25 NBA season, the Denver Nuggets were a popular pick for regression.
Losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, elevating a third-year wing in Christian Braun to the starting lineup, additions of Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric, and concerns about Jamal Murray were primary reasons why the Nuggets were considered a “worse” team. Many still thought they would compete for 50 regular season wins, but some didn’t, and more still had the Nuggets as a clear second tier title contender when April inevitably rolls in.
Through 18 games, the Nuggets have done little to dissuade those opinions. The Nuggets are 10-8, and while they’ve had few games with a full strength rotation, they haven’t dealt with an exorbitant amount of injuries either. Most good teams would be able to survive some of the absences the Nuggets have faced.
And to some degree, the Nuggets have survived. Aaron Gordon missed 10 games in a row. The Nuggets were 6-4 during that stretch. Nikola Jokic missed three of those games. The Nuggets managed to get one of them and weren’t swept on a road trip. Jamal Murray missed three games due to a concussion, and both Russell Westbrook and Julian Strawther stepped up to help the Nuggets go 3-0 without him.
Now, Aaron Gordon is back, and the Nuggets are 10-8. They’re ninth in the Western Conference at the moment, a brutal statement given that they would place fifth in the Eastern Conference.
The truth of the matter: the Nuggets have played exactly like their record so far. They’re a slightly above average team in a variety of metrics.
10th in Net Rating on Cleaning the Glass
12th in Net Rating on NBA.com
10th in Net Rating on Dunks and Threes
10th in Simple Rating System (SRS) on Basketball Reference
The Nuggets aren’t really getting unlucky. The schedule has been manageable, if a little difficult at times. They aren’t overly injured. They’re just...solid? Fine? Good? Competent? None of those words truly fit the bill. Disappointing is probably a more apt description.
At the beginning of the season, I predicted the Nuggets would win 52 games (to my memory). They weren’t ever going to be a great regular season team with as much disruption to the status quo as there has been.
Right now, the Nuggets win percentage of 55.55% puts them on pace to win about 45 to 46 games. That’s obviously not good enough and would represent a major step back.
At some point, the Nuggets will have to truly lock in on both ends of the floor and play more precise basketball. So far, they’ve been fine, good even. Nothing about what we’ve seen so far leads me to believe greatness is around the corner though, and that’s a scary thought.
There’s time for Denver to be great. Hopefully, they show some signs of excellence soon.
Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) is helped up by center Jay Huff (30) and forward Jaylen Wells (0) during the second quarter against the New Orleans Pelicans at FedExForum. | Petre Thomas/Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
In mid-November, when the Lakers beat the Grizzlies at home in L.A., it was in large part to the efforts of Dalton Knecht. The rookie was upset that a week before that game the Grizzlies very tidily (to the tune of 131-114) put the Lakers away in Memphis, but more specifically, that Ja Morant challenged LeBron James. Knecht told ESPN reporter Dave McMenamin that Morant said “he was pretty much the new king around here when Bron’s still in the league.”
This is about the Grizzlies, it is, but Knecht’s umbrage was directed at the crucial element that’s powered Memphis for so long, and what’s put them back on top after last year’s wash of a season: outsized confidence.
It’s been called disrespect, showboating, ego, but whatever the Grizzlies are being called is less important than the baseline quality of confidence the labels all spring from and the team embodies. I’ve also found these other monikers telling— like a league temperature check — depending on who is levelling them and as a result of what. In Knecht’s case, he felt it disrespectful that Morant would make such a claim but Morant’s been saying it for seasons now. What started as general agitation and prowess for his own team seasons ago, a means to get an underdog Grizzlies team fired up, worked. It also turned into something greater: Morant hasn’t replaced James yet but the weight of expectation is there, so is the pathway. The side-effect, this time, was giving a rookie like Knecht his “Welcome to the NBA” moment.
The Grizzlies are sitting third in a densely competitive Western Conference, ranked fifth overall in offence and fourth in defence, and they’ve secured these spots despite largely being without Morant, their diamond-in-the-rough of Desmond Bane, and big man Zach Edey. Jaren Jackson Jr. sits comfortably on over a dozen league leaderboards, including points per 36 minutes, field goals per 100 possessions, block percentage and defensive win shares. Scottie Pippen Jr. Is an assist machine with the kind of court vision that usually takes seasons to sharpen; Jay Huff can sharp-shoot the three and the next possession take the ball up for a reverse dunk right in front of LeBron James.
And there’s no slouch in them. All down the roster, despite the injury gaps, Memphis counts seven players who average at least and typically more than 10 points a game. Of those seven, all split their minutes, with Jackson Jr. averaging the most at 29:20 a game. The result is an early depth that not many other teams can rival...
Katie Heindl is a credentialed NBA and WNBA writer, her bylines have appeared with The New York Times Magazine, SLAM, The Athletic, Yahoo Sports, Dime, Rolling Stone, among others. She writes the bestselling Substack, Basketball Feelings and is working on a book of the same name.
Home and Away
Preview Breaking down the NBA Cup: Here’s a primer for the final night of group-stage games. (The Athletic)
Saturday, Dec. 07 | 7:00 PM | Capital One Arena (Washington, DC) | Get Tickets
Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Dejounte Murray’s Poor Shooting Return To Atlanta
Dec 2, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard Dejounte Murray (5) dribbles against the Atlanta Hawks in the fourth quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis/Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Injury Updates and Player Returns
As we navigate the NBA season, keeping an eye on player injuries and returns is crucial for fantasy basketball success. Jeremy Sochan is potentially making a comeback, and I recommend adding him in all league formats. Mark Williams is another player to watch, as he’s been upgraded to questionable. While his return isn’t guaranteed, it’s worth considering adding him to your roster. Meanwhile, Draymond Green is listed as questionable, but Steve Kerr has expressed doubts about his availability. This opens up opportunities for Jonathan Kuminga, Kevon Looney, and Trace Jackson-Davis to step up in his absence.
Waiver Wire Trends
The waiver wire is buzzing with activity, and it’s essential to stay ahead of the curve. Vasa Micic is the most added player, filling in for the injured LaMelo Ball and Tre Mann. While this isn’t a long-term solution, Micic is a solid pickup until one of them returns. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is another player to consider, especially with the Magic’s favourable schedule. He’s a great streaming option, but don’t expect consistent season-long value. Marcus Smart is also gaining traction, and his recent performances make him a worthy addition.
On the flip side, Isaiah Stewart, Moussa Diabate, and Naji Marshall are among the most dropped players. Stewart’s value is inconsistent, making him an easy drop. Diabate’s minutes are dwindling, and Marshall’s role is uncertain. Scotty Pippen Jr. and Ty Jerome have also seen significant drops, with Jerome’s value plummeting due to Caris LeVert’s return.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Nuggets podcasts.
Nuggets Defense Exposed: Harden Dominates in Clippers Win Matt and Ryan break down another close Denver Nuggets loss and what the Nuggets are missing from being true title contenders.
Can The Nuggets Make A Trade To Change Their Season? Matt and Ryan discuss Denver’s championship contender status, Michael Porter Jr.'s growth, and whether a trade could save the season.
Postgame Drama: Jamal Murray’s Words Spark Controversy After Knicks Loss Jamal Murray makes some interesting comments after the Nuggets loss that has set the NBA world ablaze.
