Leading up to the 2024-25 NBA season, the Denver Nuggets were a popular pick for regression.
Losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, elevating a third-year wing in Christian Braun to the starting lineup, additions of Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric, and concerns about Jamal Murray were primary reasons why the Nuggets were considered a “worse” team. Many still thought they would compete for 50 regular season wins, but some didn’t, and more still had the Nuggets as a clear second tier title contender when April inevitably rolls in.
Through 18 games, the Nuggets have done little to dissuade those opinions. The Nuggets are 10-8, and while they’ve had few games with a full strength rotation, they haven’t dealt with an exorbitant amount of injuries either. Most good teams would be able to survive some of the absences the Nuggets have faced.
And to some degree, the Nuggets have survived. Aaron Gordon missed 10 games in a row. The Nuggets were 6-4 during that stretch. Nikola Jokic missed three of those games. The Nuggets managed to get one of them and weren’t swept on a road trip. Jamal Murray missed three games due to a concussion, and both Russell Westbrook and Julian Strawther stepped up to help the Nuggets go 3-0 without him.
Now, Aaron Gordon is back, and the Nuggets are 10-8. They’re ninth in the Western Conference at the moment, a brutal statement given that they would place fifth in the Eastern Conference.
The truth of the matter: the Nuggets have played exactly like their record so far. They’re a slightly above average team in a variety of metrics.
- 10th in Net Rating on Cleaning the Glass
- 12th in Net Rating on NBA.com
- 10th in Net Rating on Dunks and Threes
- 10th in Simple Rating System (SRS) on Basketball Reference
The Nuggets aren’t really getting unlucky. The schedule has been manageable, if a little difficult at times. They aren’t overly injured. They’re just...solid? Fine? Good? Competent? None of those words truly fit the bill. Disappointing is probably a more apt description.
At the beginning of the season, I predicted the Nuggets would win 52 games (to my memory). They weren’t ever going to be a great regular season team with as much disruption to the status quo as there has been.
Right now, the Nuggets win percentage of 55.55% puts them on pace to win about 45 to 46 games. That’s obviously not good enough and would represent a major step back.
At some point, the Nuggets will have to truly lock in on both ends of the floor and play more precise basketball. So far, they’ve been fine, good even. Nothing about what we’ve seen so far leads me to believe greatness is around the corner though, and that’s a scary thought.
There’s time for Denver to be great. Hopefully, they show some signs of excellence soon.
