Sean Woodley here, the host of the daily Locked On Raptors podcast, with your daily Locked On Raptors newsletter. Each day we bring you the biggest stories about the Raptors and the NBA, including the hottest links to other stories you need to read. Plus, Josh Lloyd delivers daily fantasy notes to crush your league.
Scottie Barnes could return as early as tonight. What now for the Raptors starting lineup?
Oct 28, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes (4) drives to the net against Denver Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon (32) during the second half at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images|John E. Sokolowski/John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
I don’t know if you could say the Raptors successfully treaded water while Scottie Barnes was out of the lineup. They did go just 2-9 in three-plus weeks without him, after all. Stuck at 3-12 with Barnes set to return as early as tonight against the Wolves, climbing out of the hole they’ve dug, should they even care to, is gonna be one hell of a lift.
They certainly didn’t embarrass themselves with Barnes out, though. Even if the results didn’t align with the quality of the basketball they played, a lot of important kernels of info were gleaned from the work the RJ Barrett/ Jakob Poeltl / Gradey Dick-led Raptors put in while Barnes experimented with all manner of sideline fits.
How Darko Rajakovic marries what we’ve learned with Barnes out with what we already know about the Barnes-led version of the team (which admittedly, still isn’t verY much) now comes into focus. Surely, Barrett’s emergent playmaking, Poeltl’s scoring uptick and Dick becoming a magnet for panicked defenders will inform what the team looks like with its best player back, goggles and all.
Barnes’ return marks the first of a pair starting lineup decisions Darko Rajakovic is set to confront as his two top-billed players make their way back, though it seems like Immanuel Quickley’s return is still a ways off.
Maybe the most shocking development of the last few weeks has been just how well the Raptors’ starters have held serve. Even with Mitchell hitting just 29% of his threes, the Mitchell-Dick-Agbaji-Barrett-Poeltl crew is sporting a +5.7 NET Rating as the second-most used lineup in all of basketball per NBA.com. Barnes is gonna break it up one way or another. But who should be the odd-man out?
It’s gotta be Mitchell.
As I covered earlier this week in the newsletter, RJ Barrett’s pick-and-roll creation numbers are obscene. He’s been the crux of Toronto’s offense (ranked 13th in the 11 games without Barnes), serving as the team’s de factor point guard with Davion Mitchell’s offensive effectiveness, if it ever existed, waning. Understanding that most coaches like the idea of a traditional point guard being the floor, it seems pretty clear the move for Rajakovic is to run Barrett as the nominal point while Mitchell takes up the role of high-energy tone-shifter off the bench.
The concern with benching Mitchell is the defensive drop-off. Mitchell’s been even better than advertised making life miserable for opposing ball-handlers, and sports impact stats to match. Toronto’s defense is 11.3 points per 100 possessions better with when Mitchell is on the floor compared to when he sits per Cleaning the Glass.
Unless Gradey Dick is demoted to sixth man duty, defense is going to the bench to make way for Barnes, an electric defender in his own right. I don’t think you can take Dick out of the starting five though; he’s as meaningful to the offense as Mitchell has been to the defense. And with how deadly Ochai Agbaji has been from deep, sticking him on the bench in lieu of Mitchell doesn’t quite sit right either.
Barrett will probably be overexposed on defense no matter the decision here. He’s gonna have to slide with slippery guards, or go toe-to-toe with bruising wings in any configuration.
Though Agbaji’s defensive impact stats are nowhere near as good as Mitchell’s, I think Toronto’s best bet at balance is to have him corral lead guards with his mix of length and lateral quicks, while Barrett and Dick do their best to offer wing resistance, comforted by Barnes back and lurking near the rim.
A Barrett-Dick-Agbaji-Barnes-Poeltl group isn’t the most orthodox starting group, but as Toronto’s proven with Barnes out, your starter’s don’t need to be traditionally sexy on paper, they just need to work.
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Today on the podcast I’m joined by Trill Bro Dude of the You Know Ball podcast to compare the Sixers and Raptors, both hanging at the bottom of the East, with very different long-term outlooks. Who would you rather be for the next five years?
Enjoy the show! See ya tomorrow for a post-game Toxic Positivity Friday!
A refrain I’ve increasingly heard from casuals, like the talking heads on the NBA’s biggest broadcast partners, is that the league is too homogenous these days, that every team just goes out there and chucks up threes. Every game is the same.
Leaving aside the shortsightedness of famous, influential media analysts dumping on their own product, it’s a common enough complaint that I felt an urge to investigate. My eyeballs tell me the league’s never been more diverse and fun, thanks largely to the absurd wealth of stars today with skill sets as bespoke as their draft night suits. Jokic’s Nuggets look nothing like Tatum’s Celtics look nothing like Brunson’s Knicks, and to suggest otherwise is willful ignorance.
As I wrote about for Basketball Poetry yesterday, the current top five offenses are Boston, Cleveland, New York, the Lakers, and Dallas. Those five teams rank first, 14th, 17th, 24th, and 21st, respectively, in share of shots that are triples. You certainly don’t need to launch a million threes relative to your peers to score the basketball successfully.
Of course, that’s a rather superficial analysis. Regardless of rank, what if the absolute numbers are all getting closer together? That would represent a growing sameness.
I looked at shot data from this season, a decade ago, and 20 years ago to see how much the share of three-pointers had changed.
Katie Heindl is a credentialed NBA and WNBA writer, her bylines have appeared with The New York Times Magazine, SLAM, The Athletic, Yahoo Sports, Dime, Rolling Stone, among others. She writes the bestselling Substack, Basketball Feelings and is working on a book of the same name.
Home and Away
Watch Vince Carter discusses a viral social media meme that has taken the internet by storm, offering his humorous take on the situation. (Sports Illustrated)
Rumor The latest Raptors mailbag dives into future expectations and trade talk, sparking intriguing speculation about potential team changes. (Sports Illustrated)
Analysis How the Cavaliers’ offseason plan has turned them into the top team in the league so far this year. (ESPN)
Milestone Russell Westbrook becomes the first player in NBA history to record 200 triple-doubles. (CBS Sports)
Must Read The NBA’s three-point revolution has gotten extreme, begging the question: How many is too many?(The Washington Post)
Fantasy Cheat Sheet
The Randomness Of Fantasy Basketball On A Wednesday In The NBA
Nov 20, 2024; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Paul George (8) drives to the basket as Memphis Grizzlies forward Jaylen Wells (0) defends during the first half at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images|Petre Thomas/Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Top Five Fantasy Takeaways from Wednesday’s Games
1. Paul George’s Knee Injury Concerns
Paul George’s knee hyperextension during the 76ers vs. Grizzlies game is a significant concern for fantasy managers. While initial reports suggest no structural damage, his availability in the coming games is uncertain. This situation could open up opportunities for other players on the 76ers to step up, making it crucial to monitor updates closely.
2. Unpredictable Pelicans vs. Cavaliers Game
The Pelicans vs. Cavaliers matchup was a bizarre affair, with unexpected lineups and performances. Elfrid Payton started for the Pelicans, and Jaylon Tyson shone for the Cavs, but these anomalies are unlikely to have long-term fantasy implications. Managers should view this game as an outlier and avoid making hasty roster changes based on these performances.
3. Pacers’ Struggles and Tyrese Haliburton’s Slump
The Pacers are facing challenges, particularly with Tyrese Haliburton’s shooting woes. His road performance has been notably poor, possibly due to lingering back issues. Despite this, Haliburton’s track record suggests a turnaround is likely, making him a prime buy-low candidate for managers willing to take a risk on his recovery.
Click the button below to see how Norman Powell’s injury could open up opportunities for the Clippers, and a top 50 player returns to action.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Raptors podcasts.
Thursday — Would you rather be the Raptors or Sixers for the next 5 years? w/ Trill Bro Dude Sean is joined by Trill Bro Dude from the You Know Ball podcast to talk about the Raptors and Sixers, both near the bottom of the Eastern Conference, but with very different outlooks both now and in the future.
Wednesday — What’s More Likely?! featuring Hot Take Heindl Sean is joined by Katie Heindl (Locked On Newsletters) to play a few rounds of our favourite parlour game: What’s More Likely?! We get into either-or questions about Jakob Poeltl’s future in Toronto, how the Raptors stack up with the Bucks and Sixers, and who will start more games to close the season between Ochai Agbaji and Gradey Dick. This episode also features the debut of Hot Take Heindl, the greatest take artist to ever live.
Tuesday — RJ Barrett plays closer vs. Pacers; Raptors snap 7-game losing stream Sean and Vivek Jacob (Raptors in 7, Sportsnet) talk about the Raptors’ 130-119 win over the Pacers, RJ Barrett’s masterful work on the ball and where it fits into the team when Scottie Barnes comes back, Jakob Poeltl’s heater and The Good, The Bad & The Hmm from Monday’s game.
