I don’t know if you could say the Raptors successfully treaded water while Scottie Barnes was out of the lineup. They did go just 2-9 in three-plus weeks without him, after all. Stuck at 3-12 with Barnes set to return as early as tonight against the Wolves, climbing out of the hole they’ve dug, should they even care to, is gonna be one hell of a lift.
They certainly didn’t embarrass themselves with Barnes out, though. Even if the results didn’t align with the quality of the basketball they played, a lot of important kernels of info were gleaned from the work the RJ Barrett/ Jakob Poeltl / Gradey Dick-led Raptors put in while Barnes experimented with all manner of sideline fits.
How Darko Rajakovic marries what we’ve learned with Barnes out with what we already know about the Barnes-led version of the team (which admittedly, still isn’t verY much) now comes into focus. Surely, Barrett’s emergent playmaking, Poeltl’s scoring uptick and Dick becoming a magnet for panicked defenders will inform what the team looks like with its best player back, goggles and all.
Barnes’ return marks the first of a pair starting lineup decisions Darko Rajakovic is set to confront as his two top-billed players make their way back, though it seems like Immanuel Quickley’s return is still a ways off.
Maybe the most shocking development of the last few weeks has been just how well the Raptors’ starters have held serve. Even with Mitchell hitting just 29% of his threes, the Mitchell-Dick-Agbaji-Barrett-Poeltl crew is sporting a +5.7 NET Rating as the second-most used lineup in all of basketball per NBA.com. Barnes is gonna break it up one way or another. But who should be the odd-man out?
It’s gotta be Mitchell.
As I covered earlier this week in the newsletter, RJ Barrett’s pick-and-roll creation numbers are obscene. He’s been the crux of Toronto’s offense (ranked 13th in the 11 games without Barnes), serving as the team’s de factor point guard with Davion Mitchell’s offensive effectiveness, if it ever existed, waning. Understanding that most coaches like the idea of a traditional point guard being the floor, it seems pretty clear the move for Rajakovic is to run Barrett as the nominal point while Mitchell takes up the role of high-energy tone-shifter off the bench.
The concern with benching Mitchell is the defensive drop-off. Mitchell’s been even better than advertised making life miserable for opposing ball-handlers, and sports impact stats to match. Toronto’s defense is 11.3 points per 100 possessions better with when Mitchell is on the floor compared to when he sits per Cleaning the Glass.
Unless Gradey Dick is demoted to sixth man duty, defense is going to the bench to make way for Barnes, an electric defender in his own right. I don’t think you can take Dick out of the starting five though; he’s as meaningful to the offense as Mitchell has been to the defense. And with how deadly Ochai Agbaji has been from deep, sticking him on the bench in lieu of Mitchell doesn’t quite sit right either.
Barrett will probably be overexposed on defense no matter the decision here. He’s gonna have to slide with slippery guards, or go toe-to-toe with bruising wings in any configuration.
Though Agbaji’s defensive impact stats are nowhere near as good as Mitchell’s, I think Toronto’s best bet at balance is to have him corral lead guards with his mix of length and lateral quicks, while Barrett and Dick do their best to offer wing resistance, comforted by Barnes back and lurking near the rim.
A Barrett-Dick-Agbaji-Barnes-Poeltl group isn’t the most orthodox starting group, but as Toronto’s proven with Barnes out, your starter’s don’t need to be traditionally sexy on paper, they just need to work.
—
Today on the podcast I’m joined by Trill Bro Dude of the You Know Ball podcast to compare the Sixers and Raptors, both hanging at the bottom of the East, with very different long-term outlooks. Who would you rather be for the next five years?
Enjoy the show! See ya tomorrow for a post-game Toxic Positivity Friday!
