Ben Beecken here, the host of the daily Locked On Wolves podcast, with your daily Locked On Wolves newsletter. Each day we bring you the biggest stories about the Wolves and the NBA, including the hottest links to other stories you need to read. Plus, Josh Lloyd delivers daily fantasy notes to crush your league.
Minnesota Timberwolves transition woes are an issue + Julius Randle at the 5??
Timberwolves’ Transition Troubles: A Deep Dive
The Minnesota Timberwolves have faced significant challenges in transition play this season, both defensively and offensively. As we analyze the early games, it’s clear that transition defense is the largest, most pressing issue. The Timberwolves are allowing opponents to start 22% of their possessions in transition, which ranks last in the league. Ultimately, it isn’t just about fast break points; it’s about the secondary break, where opponents capitalize on mismatches and defensive lapses.
In the recent game against Dallas, turnovers were a major contributor to these transition woes. The Timberwolves turned the ball over 20 times, leading to 25 fast break points for the Mavericks. However, the real damage came from the secondary break, where Dallas exploited the Timberwolves’ defensive disorganization. Despite these struggles, the Timberwolves’ transition defense isn’t entirely bleak. While they allow frequent transition opportunities, the points per possession in these situations aren’t as dire, suggesting that the team is getting back on defense but failing to organize effectively, leading to the aforementioned secondary break opportunities.
Offensive Transition Woes
Conversely, the Timberwolves are struggling to capitalize on transition opportunities themselves. They rank 28th in the league in offensive transition frequency, running on just 11.8% of their possessions. This lack of aggression in transition is puzzling, especially when Rudy Gobert is off the floor. The team has the potential to push the pace more, yet they remain hesitant, missing out on easy scoring opportunities.
The gap between the Timberwolves’ defensive and offensive transition play is stark. While opponents exploit transition chances against them, the Timberwolves fail to do the same on the offensive end. This imbalance was evident in the game against Dallas, where despite shooting well from the floor, the Timberwolves couldn’t overcome the turnover-induced transition points they conceded.
Julius Randle’s Role and Rotations
Julius Randle’s integration into the team has been another focal point. His performance in transition has been under scrutiny, with some struggles noted. However, Randle’s offensive contributions have been significant. His ability to facilitate and score has been a bright spot, even as the team navigates defensive challenges.
The rotation strategy, particularly the staggering of Randle and Anthony Edwards’ minutes, is still evolving. Early data shows mixed results when one is on the floor without the other, but it’s too soon to draw definitive conclusions. The potential for Randle to play at the five offers an intriguing tactical option, as seen in the recent game against Dallas. During a stretch where Randle played center, the Timberwolves were able to close the gap, showcasing the offensive potential of this lineup configuration.
For more insights and a deeper dive into the Timberwolves’ transition challenges and rotation strategies, tune into the Locked On Wolves podcast for this and much more.
Other Topics in Today’s Locked On Wolves Podcast:
- Analysis of the Timberwolves’ rotation and lineup pairings
- Discussion on the impact of turnovers on recent games
- Insights into Chris Finch’s coaching strategies and adjustments
- Examination of the Timberwolves’ upcoming schedule and key matchups
Last week in this space, I briefly mentioned the huge number of whistles we’d seen this season compared to the previous campaign, something that’s since been corroborated by others. But there’s another leaguewide trend worth watching. The NBA is seeing a surge in offensive rebounding — one that I think will stick.
The average offensive rebounding rate sits at 28.9%, the highest for a 10-day sample in the last decade by a mile. After a nadir in offensive rebounding in the late 2010s and early 2020s, the last few seasons have seen rates ticking slowly but surely back up, like a turtle climbing a hill. But nothing in recent history has compared to what we’ve seen in these first 10 days:
Graph by Mike Shearer
So what’s going on? Offensive rebounding used to be considered a double-edged sword. In general, crashing the glass meant giving up more in transition, and for years, the increasingly trendy focus on limiting fast break opportunities (thanks for killing fun, Coach Popovich!) cut off the O-boarding oxygen supply.
But teams are increasingly figuring out how to balance the two in pursuit of winning. Several of last year’s best regular-season teams emphasized window-wiping: New York, Denver, Phoenix, and Boston were all top-11 offensive-rebounding teams. (So were Portland and Utah, to be fair, but teams that struggle to score in more traditional ways often emphasize the offensive glass, too.)
Why are teams hungry to recover their own misses, and how are they doing so? (And don’t forget to click through for the Mildly Interesting Stat of the Week!)
Mike Shearer (@bballispoetry) has written about the NBA full-time since 2021 at various and sundry places. For more from Mike, check out his Substack bestseller, Basketball Poetry, where he uses unnecessary metaphors and the occasional haiku to discuss the NBA’s happenings with an analytical lens.
Home and Away
Analysis Hoops Habit has some thoughts on what the Wolves did in the draft. The blog criticized the team for adding a “project,” instead of a piece to help them win now.
Ranking No. 5. That’s where ESPN has the Wolves after the first 10 days of the season. Experts also highlighted the trade for Julius Randle, saying his chemistry with Anthony Edwards is working so far.
Analysis Chris Herring of ESPN+ looks at the Cavaliers, KAT, Morant, and more in an early-season status report.
Must Read Sinful. Diabolical. Those are just a couple of the words The Ringer’s Danny Chau uses to describe LaMelo Ball’s playing style.
Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Victor Wembanyama’s Early Struggles In Fantasy Basketball
San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama (1) works to steal the ball from Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) after he fell to the floor during the second half at Paycom Center.
|Photo by Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
The NBA season is in full swing, and with it comes a slew of injuries and unexpected player performances that can significantly impact your fantasy basketball strategy. Here’s a look at the latest updates and insights to help you navigate these changes.
Key Injury Updates
Scottie Barnes is out with an orbital fracture, sidelining him for at least three weeks. This opens up opportunities for other Toronto Raptors players to step up, potentially offering valuable fantasy pickups.
The New Orleans Pelicans are dealing with injuries to CJ McCollum and Herb Jones. McCollum’s adductor issue and Jones’ shoulder problem could keep them out for multiple games, affecting the Pelicans’ lineup and fantasy prospects.
Player Struggles: Victor Wembanyama and Zion Williamson
Victor Wembanyama’s early-season performance has been underwhelming, especially for those who drafted him high. In a recent game, he took only five shots, raising concerns about his role and usage. While it’s too early to panic, fantasy managers should monitor his situation closely, as his potential remains high.
Zion Williamson is also off to a rocky start, with shooting percentages well below expectations. Despite playing 33 minutes in a recent game, his field goal percentage has been alarmingly low. This could be attributed to lingering effects from an illness, but it’s a situation that requires close attention from fantasy managers.
Click the button below to learn why there’s concern over Jrue Holiday, as well as a possible new streaming option out in Indianapolis.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Wolves podcasts.
Turnovers, transition defense haunt Minnesota Timberwolves in loss to Mavericks The Minnesota Timberwolves won most of the box score against the Dallas Mavericks, but 20 turnovers and lackadaisical transition defense was enough to lose the game.
Early season takeaways for the Minnesota Timberwolves + Wolves vs. Mavericks tonight The Minnesota Timberwolves offense is off to a good start this season. Ben Beecken (@bbeecken) breaks down what has stood out the most so far, and where the Wolves go from here.
Rudy Gobert’s dominance lifts Minnesota Timberwolves over Toronto Raptors in home opener The Minnesota Timberwolves won their home opener over the Toronto Raptors behind a dominant Rudy Gobert performance, plus, Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle dropped 24 points apiece.
