Last week in this space, I briefly mentioned the huge number of whistles we’d seen this season compared to the previous campaign, something that’s since been corroborated by others. But there’s another leaguewide trend worth watching. The NBA is seeing a surge in offensive rebounding — one that I think will stick.
The average offensive rebounding rate sits at 28.9%, the highest for a 10-day sample in the last decade by a mile. After a nadir in offensive rebounding in the late 2010s and early 2020s, the last few seasons have seen rates ticking slowly but surely back up, like a turtle climbing a hill. But nothing in recent history has compared to what we’ve seen in these first 10 days:
So what’s going on? Offensive rebounding used to be considered a double-edged sword. In general, crashing the glass meant giving up more in transition, and for years, the increasingly trendy focus on limiting fast break opportunities (thanks for killing fun, Coach Popovich!) cut off the O-boarding oxygen supply.
But teams are increasingly figuring out how to balance the two in pursuit of winning. Several of last year’s best regular-season teams emphasized window-wiping: New York, Denver, Phoenix, and Boston were all top-11 offensive-rebounding teams. (So were Portland and Utah, to be fair, but teams that struggle to score in more traditional ways often emphasize the offensive glass, too.)
This year, five teams are in the top 11 of both offensive rebounding rate and live-rebound transition points saved: Golden State, Houston, Memphis, Toronto, and Charlotte. It’s clearly possible, albeit difficult, to be good at both.
Why are teams hungry to recover their own misses, and how are they doing so?
Well, it’s easier to score off an offensive rebound than a first shot — many offensive rebounds occur next to the hoop, leading to simple putbacks or kickouts to three-point marksmen taking advantage of scrambled defenses. Coaches have been instructing players in the corners to run to the nail when a shot goes up, giving them a chance to hunt an offensive rebound without sacrificing transition defense. Like playful puppies at the dog park, players with a knack are now allowed (and even encouraged) to chase the ball if they sense an opportunity, even from the top of the arc, an act once verboten.
Anecdotally, it seems that “tagging up” has also become more common. When a shot goes up, several designated offensive rebounders don’t fight for inside position but instead drift to their matchup’s outside shoulder, ensuring they’re in position for a lucky bounce without sacrificing transition position or mismatches. If a team commits to consistently sending players to the offensive glass, the number of bodies needed to hold them off can stymie opposing transition plays right from the start.
Finally, although this is a bit contributor, the increase in three-point shots this season (38.2% of non-garbage-time shots, which would be the highest ever if it holds) has led to more long bounces, creating more offensive rebounding chances. Zany ping-pongs off the rim plus a renewed coaching emphasis on capturing offensive rebounds combine to create a perfect environment for offensive rebounds to rise.
Mildly Interesting Stat of the Week
It’s time for everyone’s favorite non-sponsored bit (although hit me up if you’d like to change that!), the Mildly Interesting Stat of the Week! Here is a snack for thought that dovetails nicely with our theme: league-tracked defensive box-outs are way down this year.
The NBA’s box-out numbers are notoriously low, so don’t treat this as gospel, but the average team is logging nearly 30% fewer defensive box-outs this year than last and 19% fewer than in 2022-23.
Is it small sample noise? (Probably.) Are teams giving more minutes to players who are worse at defensive box-outs? (Maybe.) Is something strange — well, stranger than usual — going on with the underlying data? (I wouldn’t be shocked!) Frankly, I’m not sure what’s happening here, but I wanted to flag it as something mildly interesting to keep an eye on.
