Check the stats. Luke Kennard is one of the best three point shooters of the 21st century. His career mark of 43.8% from beyond the arc over 1.853 attempts is impressive. It is a number that has kept him gainfully employed in the NBA despite lacking in other areas important to the game of basketball. He has made, and continues to make, an impact on the offense of the Memphis Grizzlies when he is on the floor.
So why does it seem that it is Luke Kennard that may be the “next man out” of the Grizzlies rotation? He has only played 37 minutes combined over his last three games, and per 100 possessions he is taking the fewest threes of his career outside of his rookie season. It’s a small sample size...but as Memphis gets healthier, Luke’s role is dwindling.
In some ways, it’s concerning - especially to those of us that remember the days of abysmal three point shooting. You know, as recently as (checks notes) last season. The Grizzlies have shot better than 36% from three as a team once in the Zach Kleiman/Taylor Jenkins/Ja Morant era. It seems counter-intuitive to move away from the best shooter percentage-wise you have.
And yet, it’s happening. Likely because Luke almost certainly is not in the long-term plans for Memphis. You may or may not have heard this, but Cam Spencer recently scored 51 points while making 12 of 15 shots from beyond the arc. It was a G-League game as a two-way contracted player, admittedly, but Spencer was a career 42% three point shooter in his college career. He’s able to score the basketball, create for others as well as him self as a passer, and he’s a tenacious defender and rebounder.
That last part - the defense and rebounding - is what likely sets him apart from Luke long-term in Memphis. Kennard tries his best in that area of the game, but it’s certainly not a strength. In fact, even on the offensive end of the floor there have been problems with Luke getting open against longer, more physical teams. And the development of bigger, longer players with lesser (but still present) range from deep like Santi Aldama and Jake LaRavia makes Kennard even more expendable.
What good is elite marksmanship if you can’t access your line of sight? Spencer is not an elite athlete in his own right, but his handle and ability to create off the dribble some will help him deal with that at the NBA level. And, as Memphis has done before, assuming he signs an eventual NBA deal similar to the one that other two-way players have inked Spencer will make less in three years than Kennard is making this season.
Scotty Pippen Jr.'s deal is three years, roughly $7 million with a club option in year four. Luke Kennard is making $9.25 million this year. With a likely max contract extension on the horizon for Jaren Jackson Jr., having the flexibility both in terms of a cheaper potentially elite skill and financially matters.
It all adds up to Luke Kennard’s days in Memphis likely being numbered. When that time comes is a topic for a future newsletter.
