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Toxic Positivity Friday: There’s reason to believe in Jamal Shead’s 3-point stroke.
Nov 2, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic talks to guard Jamal Shead (23) during a break in the action against the Sacramento Kings during the second half at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images | John E. Sokolowski/John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
In the middle of the fourth quarter of the Raptors’ 110-97 win over the Celtics on Wednesday, those who’ve watched Toronto bumble their way through innumerable close finishes were surely bracing for a fun-spoiling Boston surge. The champs’ commitment to launching threes for sport means they’re never out it, and puts an onus upon their opponents to knock in threes to keep them at arms length.
With seven minutes and change to go, and the Raptors leading by 11, an unlikely marksmen trotted up the court, pitched it to RJ Barrett atop the key, relocated to the right wing, and cashed the ensuing catch-and-shoot triple that came his way. It would hold up as the game-winning bucket in the Raptors’ best win of the season to date, and served as Jamal Shead’s 10th made three in his last 14 tries.
“If he learns how to shoot,” is a rallying cry among prospect optimists. You hear it every year about incoming players with bunch of pro-level skills offset by a wonky jump shot. In reality, shaking a wayward jimmy is damn hard. For most poor shooters, they find themselves on the fringes of the league before the triples ever start to fall — especially so if that poor shooter is a guard trying to hack it in the modern NBA.
Shead absolutely fell into this category of prospect. Everything but the jumper was there in college. He won a national Defensive Player of the Year as a 6-foot point guard, a ridiculous feat when you really think about it. His passing vision and explosive first step give his offense a nice baseline. Pair all that with a no-doubt pedigree of just being a flat out winner (Houston went 120-18 over Shead’s four year run there), and he really did look the part of a guy who was a reliable three ball away from a long NBA career.
After a rough beginning to his rookie season from beyond the arc, things are taking shape for Shead. And while a 10-of-14 spurt is little more than a tiny sample hot streak, there’s reason to believe this run of ripping nets could have some staying power. He’s up to 37% this season on 81 attempts — 40.4% on his catch-and-shoot looks, per NBA.com.
You could do dumber things with your money than betting on young guys who work hard refining the trouble spots in their games. Shead seems committed to bucking the history that says bad shooters tend to stay bad.
“He’s putting a lot of work in. He’s one of the guys that gets most shots up in our gym,” said Raptors coach Darko Rajaković after Shead banged three of his four triples against the Warriors on Monday. “He’s really diligent about the work, and we believe in his shot. We trust his shot. So it’s good to see that he’s making those in games as well.”
Of course hard work and belief in one’s self don’t guarantee long-haul success from beyond the arc. But couple those things with tangible changes in mechanics, and you just might be cooking with gas.
If you watch closely, you can track how Shead’s jumper form has evolved over the course of his first year in the Raptors’ player development lab. It’s all in the follow-through.
On his early season threes, you could see Shead’s right hand trail off upon his release — a tick that affected the arc and trajectory of his three-ball.
“Yeah, we identified that. Actually identified that in his draft workout that he has a tendency on his shot to follow to the right side. And, you know, that’s why a lot of times the ball is going left, right,” said Rajaković when I asked him if the Raptors had been working to fix that hitch in Shead’s mechanics. “So we’re definitely trying to address that he has a consistency of shooting straight up and that his misses are not left and right.
“And there is also a connection with the arc. You know, when you transfer from college basketball to the NBA, it’s a deeper line and you need more arc on your shot as well. So all of those things are something that we are addressing.”
You can see the difference in his form over the course of recent hot spell. The follow-through is more compact and straight-on, and he looks way more on-balance letting it rip off the catch.
We’re, of course, a long ways off from declaring Shead a legitimately good shooter. He’s about a tenth of the way to the number of attempts from deep that you’d call a representative, normalized sample. And while his catch-and-shoot numbers are impressive (and probably enough to make him rotationally viable if they hold on their own), he’s still canning just 22.7 percent on a very low volume of pull-up threes — the shots that really launch point guard careers to the moon.
Though while he’s very early in his shooting development arc, it’s no longer a fool’s hope to think Shead can improve his shooting enough hold up as a helpful contributor when the Raptors truly want to get serious about winning. Similar to a baseball player making a tangible change to their swing and seeing increased production follow, that the Raptors and Shead have made a mechanical tweak to pair with his relentless work ethic is reason enough to buy that his recent heater could be the early days of a new normal.
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Today on the podcast, I’m joined by Katie Heindl to talk for a round of Toxic Positivity Friday to talk about the bright spots of the first half of the Raptors’ season. Enjoy the show, and have a great weekend!
Jan 14, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) drives for a shot past Philadelphia 76ers forward Guerschon Yabusele (28) during the third quarter at Wells Fargo Center. | Bill Streicher/Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the rest of the NBA season could just be various instances spent listening to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander go WOOOO to varying decibels and degrees of excitement? It would be, to borrow from a master gone too soon, Lynchian.
If not that, then to watch the Thunder and Cavaliers play each other, over and over, until April 13th. I suspect we still wouldn’t have our fill of these two teams but don’t fret, we’d have a riveting seven game series. Each game a competitive and tight feast for the eyes.
To really get an understanding of how, though relentless pressuring and seamless switching, the Thunder have run away with the first overall defensive rating. That even against a team like Cleveland who pride themselves on the way they’re able to take care of the ball, and their communication skills, OKC can pluck the ball out of the hands of an opponent on a fastbreak, a drive, as if they were walking right up to a kid and taking candy from their hands.
Of course, this all makes it sound like watching these two teams in perpetuity is going to look heavily lopsided for the Thunder. The matchup last night was a wallop for the West, for sure, but Cleveland showed why they’ve been coolly leading the East and the entire league. Rainbow threes from Mitchell, light lobs over the heads of every Thunder player — just then upturned to watch — between Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen, and fadeaway shots from the corner care of Max Strus.
Katie Heindl is a credentialed NBA and WNBA writer, her bylines have appeared with The New York Times Magazine, SLAM, The Athletic, Yahoo Sports, Dime, Rolling Stone, among others. She writes the bestselling Substack, Basketball Feelings and is working on a book of the same name.
Home and Away
Watch The Raptors are set to face the Milwaukee Bucks in a highly anticipated match. Key elements to watch include defensive strategies and player matchups. (Sports Illustrated)
Injury Immanuel Quickley has been ruled out, and Ochai Agbaji is questionable for the Raptors’ game against the Bucks due to injuries. Their absences could impact the team’s performance significantly. Injury updates are critical for fans. (Sports Illustrated)
Ranking Despite recent wins, the Raptors remain outside the top tier in the latest NBA Power Rankings. Continued strong performances could help improve their standing. (Bleacher Report)
Preview The Raptors face the Bucks in Milwaukee at 8:00 PM ET. Read the preview.(NBA)
Fantasy Basketball News Roundup: The Tanking In Utah
Jan 11, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen (23) looks on against the Phoenix Suns during the first half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images | Joe Camporeale/Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images
The Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers are taking tanking to a whole new level. The Jazz have been sitting players like John Collins, Lauri Markkanen, and Walker Kessler for various reasons. While I understand the incentives for tanking, the odds of getting the number one pick are not high. The NBA has been cracking down on teams resting healthy players, but these two franchises seem to be pushing the boundaries.
As a fantasy analyst, I’ve been advising people to avoid high picks from these teams due to the risk of shutdowns and reduced playing time. It’s frustrating to see this level of blatant tanking, especially when it impacts fantasy basketball managers.
The Memphis Grizzlies are another team to watch, with Ja Morant constantly appearing on the injury report. While they’re not tanking like Utah and Portland, Morant’s frequent injuries are concerning for fantasy managers.
In other news, Donte DiVincenzo is out with a toe sprain for the Knicks, which could lead to increased minutes for Mike Conley. However, I wouldn’t rush to add Conley in most leagues.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Raptors podcasts.
Thursday — Raptors take down Celtics for best win of the season Sean goes solo talk about the Raptors’ taking down the Boston Celtics 110-97 on Wednesday night for their best win of the season to date, and digs into the play of Scottie Barnes, Gradey Dick and RJ Barrett in the victory.
Wednesday — Why do the Raptors stink in the clutch, and Dylan Harper vs. Ace Bailey Sean goes solo to field listener questions in a mailbag edition of the show! Topics include Chris Boucher, crunch time struggles, the pair of star prospects at Rutgers, the future of the front office and more!
Tuesday — You can only hope to contain Chris Boucher! Raptors take down Warriors 104-101.
Sean is joined by Vivek Jacob to talk about the Raptors taking down the Golden State Warriors on Monday on the back of a thrilling 17-point fourth quarter by Chris Boucher. He’s a maniac!
