Sean Woodley here, the host of the daily Locked On Raptors podcast, with your daily Locked On Raptors newsletter. Each day we bring you the biggest stories about the Raptors and the NBA, including the hottest links to other stories you need to read. Plus, Josh Lloyd delivers daily fantasy notes to crush your league.
Good or bad, the info the Raptors are gathering right now is important.
Jan 11, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes (4) saves the ball from going out of bounds against the Detroit Pistons in the first quarter at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images | Lon Horwedel/Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
The Toronto Raptors need all the data they can get.
Between October 2023 and the start of last week, this team’s statistical profile has been something of a wasteland for anyone trying to glean ironclad conclusions. Though the overall win-loss record gives us a pretty good indication that this team stinks on the whole, a roster overhaul and all kinds of injuries have muddied the picture of what’s going on under the hood.
At long last, with the reunion of BBQ, we’re in true info-gathering mode for the first time since the fleeting 10-game stretch in February of last year where the intended mix of guys, more or less, was healthy and settling in with one another.
The early returns? Not great!
In 62 minutes of shared floor time across four games, the Raptors’ long-imagined starting five of Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl have gotten pasted by 19.7 points per 100 possessions. Their 102.3 offensive rating is almost three points worse than the league-worst Wizards; their 122 mark on defense is even further below the worst team in the league, which is also the Wizards. That’s too much “being worse than the Wizards,” I’d argue.
And yet, it’s way too early to really draw much in the way of conclusions on this group. Amid the bad, there have been some genuinely good moments. The first half against Milwaukee in the team’s first fully-healthy game of the season, the defensive show the starters put on against the offense-stacked Knicks, and the scoring barrage the main five unleashed to keep pace with Cleveland can’t all be ignored no matter how putrid the bigger picture numbers. They hint at what is probably a truth of some degree: they’re better than what they’ve shown, and probably by a lot.
It by no means proves that this five-man iteration will work the same, but the same group with Gary Trent Jr. — a marginally better defender and significantly less dynamic off-ball offensive player than his replacement, Dick — was damn good (+11.8 NET Rating as the team’s second-most used lineup all year per Cleaning the Glass) during that February stretch where the team played real ball against real opponents. That group gave an outline for what the absolute upside of the current group can be over a longer haul. But they’ve yet to hit anywhere close to that gear in their first week of action this season.
If this were a year where win maximization was the goal, Darko Rajaković may have already put the experiment to bed. Of course, the ambitions of this season are a touch lower than that.
This season is about laying the foundation for competitive ball down the line. Step one is gathering enough data to inform the decisions that lie ahead. It’d be real swell if all the info the Raptors were spitting out right now were positive. It’d make the next wave of steps that much easier. But even in failure, the numbers and tape being accrued here are precious.
So is time.
Thanks to some of the quirkier scheduling I can remember, Toronto’s last 20 games against mostly bad or outright tanking teams probably won’t be great ground for proper evaluation. The Raptors themselves may get ultra tanky to ensure they don’t cough up lottery slots to their colleagues in the basement. So we’re really looking at the stretch of 20 games or so between now and the end of February as the starting unit’s window to turn it around, or not.
If they flip their poor start on its head — great! That’s feel-good fuel headed into Mickey Mouse March and beyond. If they keep on languishing, it’s less great, though still important context for the hard choices that’ll have to be made in the next 18 months of this rebuild. And at minimum, a prolonged stretch of starter pain will help in the lotto ball derby, as the Raptors angle to draft someone who eventually changes the mix of the starting group for the long haul.
Who among the current five is on the outs as a result will very much depend on the next month and half.
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Today on the podcast I went solo to talk about a confounding game against Detroit where plenty of good stuff happened, but was it the right kind of good stuff? Enjoy the show!
Monday movers: Isaiah Collier and the resilient Pistons
Jan 12, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Jazz guard Isaiah Collier (13) lays the ball up against the Brooklyn Nets during the fourth quarter at Delta Center. | Rob Gray/Rob Gray-Imagn Images
Isaiah Collier
If you thought tracking incremental improvements was just for teams, think again. Jazz rookie Isaiah Collier had himself a game on Sunday, with a career-high 23 points, seven rebounds and assists, plus a block, in 37 minutes on the floor. It was Collier’s longest sustained playing time this season.
I covered Collier over his McDonald’s All-American weekend in April 2023. As a USC signee he was in the shadow of Bronny James, also in the same “McDAAG” class. Collier was quiet, polite, and a little shy off the floor, on the floor, all those traits inverted. When I’ve circled around to check on how Collier’s been doing this season I haven’t been surprised to see him taking a secondary role. Sometimes the best thing for a rookie is to have a working balance between competitive pressure and developing at their own pace. What I have been surprised by is how much Collier, up to now, has been flying under the radar.
He had a sixth-sense for the game in high school, in his knack for passing, knowing where teammates would be, and dictating the pace of the game — a rarer thing for a young athlete. It showed it again in his single season at USC. The Jazz don’t necessarily want Collier to be the one deploying these things, they have Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, and Keyonte George as a backup for them, but when Collier’s been trusted by the team to handle the ball it’s paid dividends.
Katie Heindl is a credentialed NBA and WNBA writer, her bylines have appeared with The New York Times Magazine, SLAM, The Athletic, Yahoo Sports, Dime, Rolling Stone, among others. She writes the bestselling Substack, Basketball Feelings and is working on a book of the same name.
Home and Away
Preview The Toronto Raptors are set to host Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors on Monday. Key aspects to watch include defensive matchups and potential lineup changes. (Sports Illustrated)
Roster The Toronto Raptors are contemplating lineup changes to improve their struggling defense. Adjustments are expected to address the team’s recent performance issues. (Sports Illustrated)
Rumor Several players are being considered as overrated trade targets ahead of the NBA trade deadline, with implications for the Raptors’ potential moves. (Bleacher Report)
Preview The Warriors are set to compete against the Raptors at Scotiabank Arena at 7:30 PM ET. Read the preview.(NBA)
Watch Roundball Rock is (almost) back. Giannis, Jayson Tatum, and Wemby star in NBC’s NBA promo. (NBC Sports)
Analysis Amid struggles, what’s the end game for the Suns? (NBA.com)
Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Waiver Wire Wisdom: Navigating Fantasy Basketball’s Ever-Changing Landscape
Jan 12, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Brooklyn Nets forward Noah Clowney (21) passes the ball away from Utah Jazz forward Cody Williams (5) during the first quarter at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | Rob Gray/Rob Gray-Imagn Images
As we dive into Week 13 of the NBA season, it’s crucial to approach your fantasy basketball strategy with a keen eye on both the present and the future. The key is to play for the short term while keeping long-term potential in mind.
Donovan Clingan is an interesting addition. With Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams out, Clingan started and showed promise. However, his value may be limited when Ayton returns. This could be an opportunity to sell high on Clingan if you believe his current performance isn’t sustainable.
Noah Clowney and Nikola Jovic are two players with more long-term value. Clowney’s minutes may fluctuate, but he’s worth rostering for potential future gains. Jovic, despite coming off the bench, has shown promise and could see consistent minutes moving forward.
Click the button below to see which under-rostered players need to find their way onto your team.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Raptors podcasts.
Tuesday — Raptors win sixth game in seven, defense shines again vs. Pelicans Sean goes solo to talk about the Raptors’ 113-104 win over the Pelicans, the defense’s continued success, the offense’s struggles & more!
Monday — Raptors complete sweep of Atlanta Hawks on the road Sean and Vivek Jacob recap a Raptors win over the Hawks on Saturday, talk about Scottie Barnes turning in another two-way master class, and debate a red hot Would You Rather conundrum.
Friday — Raptors hang on to topple Hawks for second road win of season Sean goes solo to talk about the Raptors taking the Hawks, Scottie Barnes’ two-way excellence (again) and why, no, the Raptors aren’t winning too much.
