Mike Richman here, the host of the daily Locked On Blazers podcast, with your daily Locked On Blazers newsletter. Each day we bring you the biggest stories about the Blazers and the NBA, including the hottest links to other stories you need to read. Plus, Josh Lloyd delivers daily fantasy notes to crush your league.
Correlation, Causation, and Chauncey Billups
Dec 30, 2024; Portland, Oregon, USA; Portland Trail Blazers head coach Chauncey Billups watches from the sideline during the first half against the Philadelphia 76ers at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-Imagn Images | Soobum Im/Soobum Im-Imagn Images
After winning two games in a forgiving post-Christmas slate, the Portland Trail Blazers wrapped up 2024 with a harsh beatdown at the hands of the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday night at the Moda Center.
The 125-103 Sixers win was not exactly stunning on its face. Philadelphia, in a rare turn of events, was mostly healthy and had all three of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George available. The three most talented players on the court played for the visiting team and those same visitors cruised to a victory. It’s a talent league. Talent won.
And yet.
It’s undeniable that the most tangible difference for Portland between wins over the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks and Monday’s loss to Sixers was the head coach. Chauncey Billups missed the two wins as he was away from the team due to the death of his grandmother. While he was gone they won. When he returned they got thrashed.
Nate Bjorkgren, who sat in the big chair with Billups out, is clearly the difference. Change the head, change the fortunes of the franchise, right?
Eh, maybe.
There’s an argument to made for replacing Billups and it’s a simple one. He was hired to coach a veteran team and help a talented roster take the next steps forward. The actual job has devolved into one that is very different, and likely not one that would have interested him back in 2021 when he was hired. The Blazers are a developmental team in need of a coach wired and inspired to raise up young players while losing a lot along the way. Billups has certainly done a lot of losing, as any coach would with the rosters he’s been afford. But the development portion of the job assignment has been mostly absent. It’s hard to point to a clear developmental success story under Billups. If you’re calling for his job, that’s the most reaosnable gounds on which to do so.
Reason, though, that’s rarely the realm for sports fanatics.
Instead it’s easier to point to Bjorkgren’s two wins as a proof of concept that anyone could do a better job than Billups. But using a last second win over the lowly Jazz and a solid victory over the very shorthanded and road weary Mavericks as proof of concept is unfair. The truth is that the Sixers were a big step up in competition relative to the recent opponents the Blazers had beaten and on top of that the Blazers played and shot poorly on Monday.
A more difficult opponent lead to a worse night.
The Blazers should move on from Chauncey Billups when the season ends. They should have made that decision last April, a more serious franchise would have charted a clearer path back then when it was clear what the organization needed. But the Blazers made mistakes in April that they are still feeling as the calendar flips to January.
The answer clearly isn’t Billups but nothing that happened this week suggests Bjorkgren is the obvious solution. He might be better suited for the job but using those two wins as proof positive ignores the context in which those victories happened. You can often get to the right conclusion in the wrong fashion, correlation, dear readers is not causation.
The NBA’s next generation of stars is already here
Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) shoots the ball against Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) and guard Isaiah Joe (11) in the first half at Crypto.com Arena. | Kirby Lee/Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Here’s something that will read like a riddle: When do you know the future has arrived?
Fitting, on the eve of a new year, to have one foot in the future and one eye still cast over the shoulder, looking back at the past. I value New Year’s Eve for this liminal space it lends, the opportunity to pause and consider the year that was and the one to come without a sense yet of its pressures. In-between spaces like this are rare in life, and if or when you find them, are nice not to rush out of.
Basketball has its liminal spaces too, though they’re a bit more rare. The time right after the Draft, when the next season’s rookies-to-be have their teams but no hulking expectations. The brief stretch between the regular season and the playoffs is another — the brackets set, but no competition commenced. It’s easier to tell in these situations when the future arrives, when the liminal space shuts.
But back to the riddle. Under the surface of this season’s NBA discourse, there’s been a persistent hum. With the inevitable aging of the game’s superstars comes the question of who’s next?
What confuses me is that I’ve mainly seen it asked in worry and incredulity, the implication being that there’s no one obvious, or ready, to fill those well-worn shoes. All it takes is a cursory glance at the season’s standings, now firmly set as we shift past the quarter mark, to see that the future is here — and it’s been humming for a while now.
The top four teams in the East and West all boast talent, skill, and star-power. Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ja Morant, Donovan Mitchell and Karl-Anthony Towns are the most established in terms of their fan familiarity, but Darius Garland, Paolo Banchero, Jalen Williams, and Jalen Green are already on their way to being as regularly recited — and that’s really it.
When the skill and flare of an NBA athlete proves to have staying power, to dazzle consistently, the rest comes down to name recognition, which comes through repetition.
We’ve been saying the same big names for a long time now. LeBron James, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo — their names conjure stats and highlight reels in our heads.
Katie Heindl is a credentialed NBA and WNBA writer, her bylines have appeared with The New York Times Magazine, SLAM, The Athletic, Yahoo Sports, Dime, Rolling Stone, among others. She writes the bestselling Substack, Basketball Feelings and is working on a book of the same name.
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Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Basketball Roundup: Morant’s Injury, Waiver Wire Trends, and Monday’s Game Recaps
Dec 27, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) reacts after a screen by New Orleans Pelicans center Daniel Theis (10) during the third quarter at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images | Matthew Hinton/Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images
As we enter the final week of 2024 for fantasy basketball, there’s plenty to discuss. Let’s dive into the latest injury updates, waiver wire trends, and recap Monday’s action.
Ja Morant’s Injury Update
The Memphis Grizzlies received some concerning news about Ja Morant. He’s been diagnosed with a right AC joint sprain in the same shoulder that was reconstructed last season. The team is considering him week-to-week, which typically means a minimum absence of one week, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it stretches to two or three weeks.
The Grizzlies’ injury report is staggering. In addition to Morant, Marcus Smart is out for multiple weeks, Santi Aldama is week-to-week, and several others are sidelined. This situation could lead to increased opportunities for players like Scotty Pippen Jr. and John Konchar.
Waiver Wire Trends
Looking at the most added players over the last 48 hours, Scoot Henderson tops the list. With the Portland Trail Blazers dealing with injuries, Henderson could see increased minutes. However, I’m skeptical about consistent 30-minute outings for him.
Other notable additions include Scottie Pippen Jr., Justin Champagnie, and Keon Johnson. While Pippen seems like a clear add given the Grizzlies’ injury woes, I’m less convinced about Johnson’s role with the Brooklyn Nets.
On the drop list, Larry Nance Jr. leads the pack due to his broken hand. Brandin Podziemski and Royce O’Neale are also seeing significant drops, which aligns with my expectations.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Blazers podcasts.
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Can the Trail Blazers Follow The Houston Rockets Rebuild Path? | Game Preview with Locked On Rockets A crossover edition of the show with Jackson Gatlin of Locked On Rockets, previewing the Trail Blazers two games against the Rockets on Friday and Saturday.
