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Tweaking Timberwolves’ Anthony Edwards’ shot selection would elevate his game + team shot distribution
Anthony Edwards’ Evolving Shot Selection: A Deep Dive
One of the most intriguing developments of the season to date has been Anthony Edwards’ evolving shot selection. He’s shooting nearly four more 3-pointers per game than he did last year, and has a percentage that is almost six percentage points better than his next-best long-range shooting campaign.
But what about his volume of shots at the rim and in the mid-range? How else might Edwards tweak his shot mix to turn in an even more efficient offensive season?
Anthony Edwards’ Three-Point Surge
Anthony Edwards has dramatically increased his 3-point attempts this season, shooting nearly four more threes per game compared to last year. This leap has positioned him as a league leader in 3-point makes, slightly ahead of Old Friend Malik Beasley and Miami’s Tyler Herro. Edwards’ 3-point shooting percentage has soared to an impressive 42.7%, a substantial improvement from his previous career high of just under 37%.
However, the increase has come at the expense of shots at the rim. Last season, Edwards attempted 31% of his shots at the rim, but this year, that number has dropped to 23%. Importantly, his mid-range attempts have also decreased.
Balancing the Shot Profile
While Edwards’ proficiency from beyond the arc is commendable, there’s a case to be made for a more balanced shot profile. The less-efficient mid-range jumper should be reserved for specific situations, such as late in the shot clock or in crunch time. Edwards has the potential to elevate his game further by increasing his attempts at the rim, which would not only boost his scoring efficiency but also increase his free throw opportunities.
Currently, Edwards’ free throw rate has declined, with only 10.6% of his shots resulting in free throw attempts, compared to 14% last year. This drop is largely due to his increased reliance on three-point shots and fewer attempts at the rim. By redistributing some of his mid-range attempts to drives to the basket, Edwards could enhance his scoring efficiency and free throw rate, pushing him closer to the elite status of a top-three player in the league.
The Timberwolves’ overall shot selection also plays a role in this dynamic. The team has seen a decrease in shots at the rim, impacting their offensive efficiency. By encouraging more rim attacks, not only from Edwards but from the team as a whole, the Timberwolves can improve their scoring and free throw rates, creating a more balanced and potent offense.
For more insights and a deeper dive into Anthony Edwards’ shot selection and its impact on the Timberwolves, tune into the Locked On Wolves podcast for this and much more.
Other Topics in Today’s Locked On Wolves Podcast:
- The impact of big man pairings on the Timberwolves’ performance
- Analysis of the Timberwolves’ team shot profile compared to last season
- Upcoming matchups and what to expect from the Timberwolves
- Insights into the Timberwolves’ free throw rate and its implications
Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) waves to the crowd after making a three point shot in against the New York Knicks in the fourth quarter during game five in the first round of the 2021 NBA Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. | Wendell Cruz/Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
A strange development of last night’s first round of quarter finals matchups is that I wasn’t anticipating having my heart break for the Orlando Magic. What an effort by a team that has been told over and over again that they are both down and out, and still refuses to acknowledge the veracity of either point.
Orlando’s game against Milwaukee felt contentious, engaged, and energetic, a game with stakes. The NBA Cup has been drawing out competition across the board but I have to give the Magic credit for showing up on the stage the tournament set. That was all them, and all heart.
But enough gushing (for now), onto tonight’s final two games.
Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks
There are a handful of athletes in the NBA, anywhere really, comfortable with playing the villain. Trae Young is one of them. Young has leaned into every opportunity to add fuel to the fire of Knicks’ fans disdain for the showy shooter, a grudge going strong since the 2021 playoffs.
It’ll be tougher for Young to take a bow against this Knicks team.
Though they were slower to get on the same page, Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns have synced up as maybe the best and most overpowering offensive duo in the league. The Knicks are first overall in points scored per 100 possessions since the start of this season, and second overall in their effective field goal percentage. In their efficiency differential — points per 100 possessions minus points allowed — they trail only the heavy hitters of the season: OKC, Boston, Cleveland and Memphis. Things are clicking in New York.
The Hawks have had a string of injuries, notably Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic/ De’Andre Hunter and Young himself are both listed as probable for the game in New York. The silver lining, beyond whatever happens inside Young’s brain when he gets within the municipality limits for New York City, is that the Hawks have a 5-1 record against the Cavs, Celtics, Knicks and Bucks this season — this team loves to play up. They’ve also taken a defensive jump, are 6th in the league for offensive rebounds thanks to Johnson, rookie Zaccharie Risacher has been a boon, and Atlanta doesn’t mind playing the pest.
Whether this will be the kind of number found on Broadway or off, it’ll be a show.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
What the Rockets aren’t generous about is their defence — the team is one of the most smothering defenders in the league. What they are generous about have been their fines, with head coach Ime Udoa and guard Fred VanVleet ponying up (you’ll be happy to know all fines go to charity). Houston will need all of its efforts in the former to beat the Warriors tonight.
Where the Rockets can’t do much defensively has been way out in the offensive no man’s land of the floor, the place where Steph Curry thrives. The Warriors have a 15 game winning streak going against Houston, largely because of Curry, in general, and lately because of where he capitalizes his efforts against a young team he can easily disorganize with his disruptive shooting.
Houston’s opportunities come in second chance points when they blitz the glass, in pressuring turnovers, and in playing very close basketball. The Rockets are one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA and yet, they’ve made it work, digging in to make every possession matter. The Warriors are in a slump, but the duo of Curry and Draymond Green can make light work of any team when they’re on the floor, Jonathan Kuminga continues to climb, and head coach Steve Kerr’s said that Andrew Wiggins should see minutes tonight.
Udoka called the Rockets last game against the Warriors, when they were thoroughly pummelled, one of the team’s “softest games” since his arrival, so there’s plenty of incentive for Houston to take the win tonight. Those are also the kinds of games, and hopes, that Steph Curry loves to snuff out like a candle.
Katie Heindl is a credentialed NBA and WNBA writer, her bylines have appeared with The New York Times Magazine, SLAM, The Athletic, Yahoo Sports, Dime, Rolling Stone, among others. She writes the bestselling Substack, Basketball Feelings and is working on a book of the same name.
Home and Away
Analysis The Minnesota Timberwolves displayed impressive teamwork, with key contributions from Chris Finch, Donte DiVincenzo, and Naz Reid. Their strategic play led to significant improvements. Detailed insights reveal the dynamics behind their success. (Canis Hoopus)
Biz Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor is recovering from a hip replacement surgery, with his wife Becky by his side. Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore continue to support the franchise. (Star Tribune)
Celebrate Here’s why Jared McCain is using his platform to highlight women’s sports. (Inquirer)
Analysis Trae Young has beef with the Knicks — this is why. (Sporting News)
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Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Takeaways From Tuesday’s NBA Cup Games
Dec 10, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) shoots over Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) and center Dereck Lively II (2) during the first quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images | Alonzo Adams/Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
NBA Cup Quarterfinals: Winners, Losers, and Fantasy Takeaways
Two of the four NBA Cup quarterfinal games are in the books, and it’s time to dissect the outcomes and what it means for fantasy managers.
One of the most pressing issues is the status of Immanuel Quickley. Despite the frustration surrounding his limited playtime due to injury, I firmly believe in his potential as a top 50 player this season. However, if you’re struggling with multiple injuries on your roster, it might be time to reconsider holding onto him. Evaluate your roster carefully and weigh Quickley’s potential against the immediate needs of your team.
Scottie Barnes’ situation is equally concerning. Although initial X-rays were negative, the possibility of a Lisfranc injury looms large. If confirmed, this could sideline Barnes for a significant portion of the season. Fantasy managers should brace for his absence and explore alternative options to fill the void.
Waiver Wire Trends and Player Evaluations
The waiver wire has been buzzing with activity, and several players have emerged as hot commodities. Kelly Olynyk’s rise in popularity is likely a response to Barnes’ injury, but his role remains uncertain. While Olynyk is a solid fantasy option, his long-term value is questionable given his defensive limitations and the presence of younger, more versatile players.
Cole Anthony’s recent performance has sparked debate among fantasy managers. Despite a lackluster shooting night, the decision to add him was sound, given the Magic’s need for shot generation. It’s crucial to focus on the process rather than the immediate results when evaluating players like Anthony. His role may fluctuate, but the potential for future contributions remains.
Click the button below to get a full breakdown on who fantasy managers should keep an eye on after last night’s games.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Wolves podcasts.
Minnesota Timberwolves execute perfect game plan to beat Magic, win third straight The Minnesota Timberwolves had a perfect plan to beat the Orlando Magic at their own game, and that’s exactly what they did. Anthony Edwards was hot from deep early and attacked the rim late as Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert each turned in strong games and the Wolves won their third straight.
Is Minnesota Timberwolves lineup change the ‘magic bullet’ + the impact on Chris Finch’s bench rotation Minnesota Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch finally made a starting lineup earlier this week, and the Wolves responded with consecutive wins. Is it the ‘magic bullet’ that Finch previously said he didn’t have? Also, the new lineup’s impact on the Wolves’ bench rotations.
Minnesota Timberwolves beat Pelicans behind another impressive Anthony Edwards shooting display The Minnesota Timberwolves won their second straight game behind another dominant Anthony Edwards performance. The Wolves superstar came out firing from beyond the arc once again as the Wolves held off the New Orleans Pelicans.
