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First quarter Raptors stats that make me go “Hmmmm...”
Nov 6, 2024; Sacramento, California, USA; Toronto Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic looks on during the second quarter of the game against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images | Ed Szczepanski/Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images
Twenty games is the internationally accepted point at which the Small Sample Zone gives way to the province of hard conclusions. Generally, we know what teams are around the quarter poll of the season.
That’s probably true of these Toronto Raptors. Maybe their 6-15 overall record is a tad unrepresentative, noised up by the league’s second-worst injury luck and a bunch of lost coin flips. But the general identity of this team — a deeper-than-expected bunch of plucky menaces that can hang with most any opponent and probably lose 2-3 times as much as it wins — is set.
And yet, thanks to the disjointed nature of the Raptors’ start, there’s plenty going on under the hood that’ll need another 20 games (or more) to be fully understood.
Here are some of the stats making me go “hmmmmm....” so far.
Zone-busters?
After years of getting absolutely flattened by zone defenses, there are signs of life in Toronto. Per Synergy, they’ve seen the sixth-most zone of any team in the league — a meager 3.3 possessions per game. In the past, the Raptors’ dire lack of shooting and absence of any real plans meant zone stopped them dead in their tracks. But through this admittedly teensy-tiny sample of 70 or so possessions, they’re pouring it in at a 1.29 points per possession clip — fifth in the league!
It could crater, certainly. Immanuel Quickley is still a ways from returning, and this roster isn’t exactly loaded with zone-busting shooting talent. There’s more than there used to be, though. And the collective interior passing talent of this group, from Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl to the revelatory Jonathan Mogbo and leaping RJ Barrett, just to name a few sources, is off the charts. If you can’t beat zone with threes, do it with dimes — as they did on this pretty sequence on Sunday against Miami, their longest standing zoning foe.
Transition troubles
Why do the Raptors stink so bad on the run this season!? It’s been one of the more confounding early season trends to track. Last year, Toronto’s lifeblood was scoring in the open court — they were first in transition frequency, and fifth in points per play according to Cleaning the Glass. Elite stuff.
This year? There’s all kinds of low-hanging fruit being left on the tree. Darko Rajakovic’s runs the 12th-most of any team after being oh so sprint happy a year ago, and are 27th in points per possession on the break (29th if you go by NBA.com’s tracking data). What’s going on here?
My best guess is this is a in large part a lingering metric from Scottie Barnes’ 11-game absence. He’s as majestic a transition conductor as you’ll find in the NBA, and hasn’t played in half of the games. It’s if nothing else a start in trying to find the root of the problem.
You’d think turnovers would be to blame a little, considering they’ve dragged down the Raptors’ offense in all sorts of contexts this season. But the numbers say that’s not quite true. They’re actually 10th in limiting giveaways on the run. So what gives? Some of it is sloppy finishing, and the lack of healthy shooters has left them without much of a trail threat. But this a number that needs a little more time to bake before we really know what we’re working with, I reckon.
Good or lucky?
It’s been a steady climb for the Raptors’ high-pressure defense after once being sub-Wizards on that end in late October. On the season, they’re bad-not-catastrophic, sitting 23rd in getting stops per NBA.com. Over the last 10 games, though, they’re 12th.
Part of the recent uptick is sustainable, surely. Davion Mitchell and Agbaji each rank among the league leaders in all kinds of fancy perimeter defense metrics, and Scottie Barnes has gone pterodactyl mode since his return from injury. Factor in Mogbo and Walter looking well ahead of the curve as rookies, and ol’ reliable Poeltl, and there’s some real defensive talent working within Rajakovic’s ball-hounding system.
Is the dam about the burst, though? Three-point shooting is highly variable, and the general belief is that defenses only have so much sway over whether the shots from deep are falling on a given night. It stands to reason then that some regression to the mean is coming for the Raptors, who currently give up the 5th-lowest opposing three-point percentage; 2nd-lowest from above-the-break.
But maybe there’s something behind what the Raptors are doing to force off-nights; they do employ a guy who goes by that nickname after all. With how nasty the Raptors are at the point of attack, getting off pull-up threes is understandably hard for opponents. Toronto also contests the 10th-most threes a night, for whatever that’s worth.
They also allow the 17th-most desirable shot diet to opponents, while surrendering the 8th-lowest overall effective field goal percentage. So yeah, there’s probably some sort of reality check on the way, though maybe not a disastrous one. Let’s check back in at the halfway point.
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Today on the podcast, Vivek Jacob and I ran through The Good, The Bad & The Hmm from the Raptors’ first 21 games. Enjoy the show!
Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) is helped up by center Jay Huff (30) and forward Jaylen Wells (0) during the second quarter against the New Orleans Pelicans at FedExForum. | Petre Thomas/Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
In mid-November, when the Lakers beat the Grizzlies at home in L.A., it was in large part to the efforts of Dalton Knecht. The rookie was upset that a week before that game the Grizzlies very tidily (to the tune of 131-114) put the Lakers away in Memphis, but more specifically, that Ja Morant challenged LeBron James. Knecht told ESPN reporter Dave McMenamin that Morant said “he was pretty much the new king around here when Bron’s still in the league.”
This is about the Grizzlies, it is, but Knecht’s umbrage was directed at the crucial element that’s powered Memphis for so long, and what’s put them back on top after last year’s wash of a season: outsized confidence.
It’s been called disrespect, showboating, ego, but whatever the Grizzlies are being called is less important than the baseline quality of confidence the labels all spring from and the team embodies. I’ve also found these other monikers telling— like a league temperature check — depending on who is levelling them and as a result of what. In Knecht’s case, he felt it disrespectful that Morant would make such a claim but Morant’s been saying it for seasons now. What started as general agitation and prowess for his own team seasons ago, a means to get an underdog Grizzlies team fired up, worked. It also turned into something greater: Morant hasn’t replaced James yet but the weight of expectation is there, so is the pathway. The side-effect, this time, was giving a rookie like Knecht his “Welcome to the NBA” moment.
The Grizzlies are sitting third in a densely competitive Western Conference, ranked fifth overall in offence and fourth in defence, and they’ve secured these spots despite largely being without Morant, their diamond-in-the-rough of Desmond Bane, and big man Zach Edey. Jaren Jackson Jr. sits comfortably on over a dozen league leaderboards, including points per 36 minutes, field goals per 100 possessions, block percentage and defensive win shares. Scottie Pippen Jr. Is an assist machine with the kind of court vision that usually takes seasons to sharpen; Jay Huff can sharp-shoot the three and the next possession take the ball up for a reverse dunk right in front of LeBron James.
And there’s no slouch in them. All down the roster, despite the injury gaps, Memphis counts seven players who average at least and typically more than 10 points a game. Of those seven, all split their minutes, with Jackson Jr. averaging the most at 29:20 a game. The result is an early depth that not many other teams can rival...
Katie Heindl is a credentialed NBA and WNBA writer, her bylines have appeared with The New York Times Magazine, SLAM, The Athletic, Yahoo Sports, Dime, Rolling Stone, among others. She writes the bestselling Substack, Basketball Feelings and is working on a book of the same name.
Home and Away
Analysis Explore Raptors’ strategies in player development, trade ideas, and more. This in-depth mailbag provides expert insights on team dynamics and potential moves. (Sports Illustrated)
Rumor The Raptors reportedly turned down multiple second-round picks for Bruce Brown. This decision reflects their valuation of the player’s impact on the team. (Sports Illustrated)
Injury The Raptors shared an optimistic update on Gradey Dick’s injury, highlighting positive recovery signs and potential return timelines. (Sports Illustrated)
Preview The Pacers will square off against the Raptors at Scotiabank Arena at 7:30 PM ET. Read the preview.(NBA)
Preview Breaking down the NBA Cup: Here’s a primer for the final night of group-stage games. (The Athletic)
Dec 2, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard Dejounte Murray (5) dribbles against the Atlanta Hawks in the fourth quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis/Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Injury Updates and Player Returns
As we navigate the NBA season, keeping an eye on player injuries and returns is crucial for fantasy basketball success. Jeremy Sochan is potentially making a comeback, and I recommend adding him in all league formats. Mark Williams is another player to watch, as he’s been upgraded to questionable. While his return isn’t guaranteed, it’s worth considering adding him to your roster. Meanwhile, Draymond Green is listed as questionable, but Steve Kerr has expressed doubts about his availability. This opens up opportunities for Jonathan Kuminga, Kevon Looney, and Trace Jackson-Davis to step up in his absence.
Waiver Wire Trends
The waiver wire is buzzing with activity, and it’s essential to stay ahead of the curve. Vasa Micic is the most added player, filling in for the injured LaMelo Ball and Tre Mann. While this isn’t a long-term solution, Micic is a solid pickup until one of them returns. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is another player to consider, especially with the Magic’s favourable schedule. He’s a great streaming option, but don’t expect consistent season-long value. Marcus Smart is also gaining traction, and his recent performances make him a worthy addition.
On the flip side, Isaiah Stewart, Moussa Diabate, and Naji Marshall are among the most dropped players. Stewart’s value is inconsistent, making him an easy drop. Diabate’s minutes are dwindling, and Marshall’s role is uncertain. Scotty Pippen Jr. and Ty Jerome have also seen significant drops, with Jerome’s value plummeting due to Caris LeVert’s return.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Raptors podcasts.
Monday — Raptors fall to Rockets for 7th-straight loss, but the sky ain’t falling Sean goes solo to talk about the Raptors’ 114-110 loss to Houston, Scottie Barnes’ recent struggles and why they’re probably nothing to be too alarmed about, Ja’Kobe Walter’s career-high and more!
Dec 17 — Raptors comeback vs. Chicago falls short; Jakob Poeltl hurt Sean and Vivek Jacob recap the Toronto Raptors 122-121 loss to the Chicago Bulls, discuss what Jakob Poeltl’s injury means and more.
Dec 16 — Raptors Trade Season Primer! Sean is joined by Joseph Casciaro (The Score) to preview the NBA’s trade season from the Raptors perspective, from Jakob Poeltl being too important to trade, to what the Raptors can get for their pending free agents and more!
