Ryan Blackburn here, the host of the daily Locked On Nuggets podcast, with your daily Locked On Nuggets newsletter. Each day we bring you the biggest stories about the Nuggets and the NBA, including the hottest links to other stories you need to read. Plus, Josh Lloyd delivers daily fantasy notes to crush your league.
A Closer Look At Jamal Murray’s Slump
Nov 8, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Miami Heat at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
It’s been a while, and Denver Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray is still struggling to score the basketball.
Averaging just 17.7 points per game, Murray doesn’t look like the same player he was during the 2023 playoff run. There’s less explosiveness in his movements. Murray simply looks more tentative than before, thinking about most of the moves he’s trying to make in an effort to not mess up.
Without getting into the psychology of it all, let’s just focus on the numbers and compare the 2023-24 season and 2024-25 seasons together using Per 36 minutes to adjust for playing time:
2023-24 — 24.2 points, 7.4 assists, 51.0% on 2-pointers, 42.5% on 3-pointers, 58.6 TS%
2024-25 — 17.8 points, 6.3 assists, 47.6% on 2-pointers, 33.3% on 3-pointers, 52.9 T8%
Yes, the efficiency is down across the board. Murray’s in a self-proclaimed shooting slump and is struggling to get out of it. His shooting in the restricted area has bounced back, but anywhere outside of three feet has seen a decrease, especially on three-pointers.
But we’ve seen Murray shooting slumps before, especially early in the season. There was always a degree of confidence that he would break himself out of a slump over time.
Right now, the bigger concern is the scoring volume. Murray’s usage rate, according to Basketball Reference, is at just 22.2%. That’s the lowest usage of his career since his rookie season. He’s simply shooting less than ever before, and that’s more cause for concern because it’s rattling the Nuggets pecking order.
Murray has always been Denver’s second option scorer. Ask anybody on or around the Nuggets, and they will tell you the first option is Jokic and the second option is Murray. That’s effectively been Denver’s pecking order since Murray’s second season in the NBA...seven years ago.
That’s a major shift for a Nuggets team built on continuity.
There’s always a possibility that this is a normal early season scoring slump for Murray, a notorious slow starter. Here are his numbers in each of his last six seasons from the beginning of the season through the end of November:
2018-19: 23.0% Usage, 50.9% True Shooting
2019-20: 25.6% Usage, 53.2% True Shooting
2020-21: 23.3% Usage, 55.4% True Shooting (thru end of January due to COVID schedule)
Missed 2021-22
2022-23: 27.0% Usage, 53.5% True Shooting
2023-24: 23.6% Usage, 53.5% True Shooting
2024-25: 22.7% Usage, 52.4% True Shooting
Those scoring numbers are all shockingly similar. It doesn’t make the slow starts okay, but that should provide some hope that Murray can bounce back and become a better version of himself in due time.
Now, if somebody could tell Murray to hurry up, that would be great.
Christmas lights are springing up, you can’t go anywhere without hearing Mariah Carey, and football players are making snow angels in the end zone. That means, somehow, the first quarter of the 2024-25 NBA season has come and gone. Let’s hand out some hardware!
Note: these aren’t forward-looking projections for the year-end choices. These are merit-based awards for the first 20-ish games that every team has played so far.
Eastern Conference MVP: Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
There isn’t a single superstar in the game as well-rounded as Tatum. His headline ability, scoring, is understated and mathematically elegant. He’s averaging 28.4 points per game by taking advantage of the most valuable areas on the floor: he’s finishing at career-best levels (74% shooting at the rim, the same number as Giannis and a smidge above Anthony Davis), launching a monstrous 10.6 three-pointers per game, and earning the second-most free throws of his NBA life.
But all the high-wattage guys can score. It’s everything else that sets Tatum apart. He’s become an elite positional passer, as we saw in last year’s NBA Finals; he eats defensive rebounds with startling voracity; he’s a mean-as-hell pick-setter:
While star forwards around the league complain about having to guard centers, Tatum is quietly defending bigs more often than ever before (20% of the time, to be exact).
His one surface-level deficiency, offensive rebounding, has more to do with schematic choices than personal flaws.
With apologies to Giannis Antetokounmpo, doing his best to bring the Bucks back to relevance, Tatum is a no-brainer choice.
Western Conference MVP: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
Jokic is currently third in scoring, second in rebounding, second in assists, eighth in steals (!), and second in three-point percentage. You already know who’s on top of every advanced metric leaderboard. The Nuggets post a 129.1 offensive rating with Jokic on the floor, miles ahead of the Knicks’ league-leading 123.7; they post a 96.4 offensive rating without him, a Mariana Trench-length beneath the Wizards’ anemic 103.8.
Frankly, I’ve been writing about the NBA for a while, and despite my pharaonic vocabulary (and access to online thesauri), I’ve run out of ways to describe why and how Jokic is the MVP. When we’re talking about the league’s most videogenic player, just listing stats feels wrong, but it’s also the best way to convey his overwhelming dominance.
Not even Tatum can reach the oxygen-deprived heights that Jokic routinely (and literally!) resides in. The Nugget is the MVP of the conference and the quarter, without question.
Mike Shearer (@bballispoetry) has written about the NBA full-time since 2021 at various and sundry places. For more from Mike, check out his Substack bestseller, Basketball Poetry, where he uses unnecessary metaphors and the occasional haiku to discuss the NBA’s happenings with an analytical lens.
Home and Away
Must Read It was more than 1,000 days between games for Lonzo Ball. A look inside his grueling recovery and unprecedented return to the league. (ESPN)
Analysis Handing out early hardware for the 24-25 NBA season, including the rarely-seen “Unluckiest Team of the Quarter” award. (Basketball Poetry)
Saturday, Dec. 07 | 7:00 PM | Capital One Arena (Washington, DC) | Get Tickets
Nuggets @ Hawks
Sunday, Dec. 08 | 6:00 PM | State Farm Arena (Atlanta, GA) | Get Tickets
Replay: Fantasy Cheat Sheet
NBA Fantasy Basketball: Key Takeaways from Tuesday’s Games
Dec 3, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) falls to the ground after rolling his ankle against the San Antonio Spurs in the first half of an NBA Cup game at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas/Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Kevin Durant’s Ankle Injury: What It Means for Fantasy Managers
Kevin Durant’s recent ankle injury is a significant concern for fantasy basketball managers. Durant, who has been a cornerstone for many fantasy teams, left the game after just 16 minutes, scoring 13 points with four rebounds. This re-aggravation of a previous injury could mean time on the sidelines, impacting his availability in the coming weeks. Fantasy managers should consider potential replacements or temporary fill-ins, such as Grayson Allen or Royce O’Neal, who might see increased roles in Durant’s absence. However, neither is a must-add in standard leagues, but they could provide short-term value in deeper formats.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Charlotte Hornets: Player Performances
In the clash between the 76ers and Hornets, Paul George’s resurgence was a highlight. Despite playing 37 minutes, George’s performance—29 points, eight rebounds, and six three-pointers—showed signs of his former All-NBA self. However, with a back-to-back game on the horizon, his availability remains uncertain, making it crucial for fantasy managers to monitor his status closely.
Tyrese Maxey’s shooting struggles continued, but his ability to contribute in other areas, such as free throws and defense, keeps him relevant in fantasy lineups. Meanwhile, Kelly Oubre Jr. delivered a solid outing with 14 points and four three-pointers, making him a viable short-term option.
Charlotte Hornets’ Frontcourt Dynamics
The return of Mark Williams was a notable development, albeit with limited minutes. This situation presents a sell-high opportunity for Nick Richards, who posted an impressive 22 points and 14 rebounds. While there’s a chance Richards could outperform Williams, the Hornets’ long-term plans likely favour Williams, making Richards a potential trade candidate for savvy fantasy managers.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Nuggets podcasts.
Nuggets POSTCAST: Nuggets trounce Suns in Game 1 The Denver Nuggets took care of business against the Phoenix Suns, 117-90 for their second straight win. Aniello Piro breaks down the game on tonight’s Locked On Nuggets POSTCAST.
Jamal Murray CLUTCH again! Jokic and Nuggets survive in New Orleans Matt and Ryan break down the Denver Nuggets overtime win over the New Orleans Pelicans led by Jamal Murray, Russell Westbrook closing over Michael Porter Jr., and more.
Help the Nuggets Help Themselves Matt and Swipa break down Nikola Jokic’s performance and whether he needs more help.
