Sean Woodley here, the host of the daily Locked On Raptors podcast, with your daily Locked On Raptors newsletter. Each day we bring you the biggest stories about the Raptors and the NBA, including the hottest links to other stories you need to read. Plus, Josh Lloyd delivers daily fantasy notes to crush your league.
Did the Raptors provide the blueprint for cracking Boston’s ruthless math ball?
Nov 16, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Toronto Raptors guard RJ Barrett (9) attempts a basket against Boston Celtics forward Sam Hauser (30) during the second half at the TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images|Brian Fluharty/Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images
They say it’s a copycat league, but what if the team setting the pace is so lame no self-respecting franchise would dare replicate them?
This is the conundrum facing the teams trying to close the gap with the Boston Celtics. Everyone knows the cost of winning a championship is incredibly high, from the sweat equity to team-first buy-in to the stuff you need to trade to build high-end winner. But what if the price of Larry O.B. is the very soul with which the game is played?
Boston seems fine having traded in any shred of watchability in order to optimize the math equation that makes them hum.
Before you stop reading and run to socials to label me a three-hating troglodyte, let me clear: this isn’t a crusade against bombin’ triples. Yes, I probably skew toward a deeper appreciation for dunks, post play, delicate floaters and other forms of two-point scoring, but I’ve got a lot of time for threes. I don’t actually think the NBA’s product is in dire straights due to a preponderance of them; I just think it is when the Celtics are on my TV.
Whereas most three-heavy teams create their looks in a dignified fashion — through intricate action, movement, low-post gravity — and maintain healthy enough balance between inside and out, the Celtics formula is simplistic, creatively bankrupt, and single-minded. It defies aesthetic considerations because the math they worship doesn’t care about style points.
Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown drive, then kick. Three. If they get walled off? Three. Offensive rebound? Why put it right back up and in when you can kick it out for a three? Payton Pritchard catches it 40 feet from the hoop? You guessed it. Threes are Boston’s hammer, and everything is a nail. No flow, no craft, no working the defense and taking what’s there. Just a direct line from point A to point three.
Such was the case on Saturday night, a game that contrasted the Celtics joyless style with Toronto’s noble pursuit of shots at the rim — still unequivocally the most valuable looks in basketball, mathematically speaking. It took Boston hitting 21 threes (two fewer than the Raptors attempted) on 61 tries to just barely overcome the Raptors’ barrage of rim and short mid-range scoring.
Jakob Poeltl, the push-shot God, coupled with RJ Barrett’s careful, probing pick-and-roll craft, left Boston without answers inside 10 feet. Their one hope of taking down the mighty, 2-11, catastrophically injured Raptors playing the second night of a back to back was to go bombs away. If nothing else, you hope this game provides a blueprint to others of how to make the Celtics squirm. In an ideal world, Saturday was Day One of the two-point counter revolution.
Toronto’s obviously got a ways to go until they can credibly go toe-to-toe with inner circle contenders on the daily, but their play style is what made Saturday a fight. Toronto ranks 3rd in rim frequency this season per Cleaning the Glass. It’s how they’ve kept games as close as they have despite ranking 30th in the percentage of their looks that come from long range. Boston is their decidedly dorkier diametric counterpart — 3rd-last in rim frequency (despite having exemplary guard play and two bruising wings who can get there whenever they want), and number one by a mile in spamming threes — 52.5% of their looks come from downtown, nearly seven percentage points higher than second-place Charlotte. Hideous.
The Raptors aren’t talented enough on the whole, and probably a bit too three-averse at the moment to be the team that strikes down the Celtics’ dreary reign. But perhaps their formula, not Boston’s, is the one some enterprising contender should be trying to copy. No one is gonna beat Boston at their own ruthless game. They’re the best and most cravenly committed to hurling indiscriminate long balls. But some team that can tilt the math in their favour by pouring in a critical mass of short range twos just might stand a chance. And if that team fails trying, they can at least rest easy knowing their souls are firmly in tact.
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Today on the podcast I go solo to talk about a pair of narrow losses to the Pistons and Celtics, Jakob Poeltl’s big weekend and more. Enjoy the show!
Nov 17, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) reacts after being called for a foul against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the fourth quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Nick Wosika-Imagn Images|Nick Wosika/Nick Wosika-Imagn Images
As we dive into the latest NBA action, it’s clear that Sunday was packed with intriguing performances and unexpected developments. With 10 games on the schedule, there was no shortage of excitement and fantasy implications to unpack.
Injury Updates and Opportunities
The Sacramento Kings are dealing with some significant injury news. Domantas Sabonis, usually a reliable presence, is doubtful with a back issue, potentially missing his second consecutive game. This opens up opportunities for players like Kevin Huerter and Trey Lyles to step up. Meanwhile, DeMar DeRozan is officially out for his third consecutive game.
Key Performances and Fantasy Implications
The Minnesota Timberwolves’ victory over the Phoenix Suns highlighted some strategic missteps by the Suns. Starting Mason Plumlee and Jusuf Nurkic together against Minnesota’s big lineup didn’t pay off, with Nurkic playing only 14 minutes. His inconsistent performances make him a risky fantasy option, as his playing time and production fluctuate wildly.
On the Timberwolves’ side, Mike Conley’s increased minutes are worth noting. While his scoring was minimal, his contributions in other areas helped secure the win. Naz Reid, despite his scoring potential, continues to struggle defensively, which could limit his fantasy upside.
Click the button below to see why one of KD’s newest running mates could be worth a look, and how Charlotte’s injury concerns will affect your lineup.
Katie Heindl is a credentialed NBA and WNBA writer, her bylines have appeared with The New York Times Magazine, SLAM, The Athletic, Yahoo Sports, Dime, Rolling Stone, among others. She writes the bestselling Substack, Basketball Feelings and is working on a book of the same name.
Home and Away
Preview The Raptors are set for a challenging week, facing the Pacers, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers. Despite their struggles, the team continues to entertain with close games and thrilling finishes. (Raptors HQ)
Injury The Raptors will miss Bruno Fernando against the Pacers due to an ankle injury, further thinning their frontcourt options. (Sports Illustrated)
Biz Deep breaths. The NBA has settled its broadcast lawsuits, and “Inside the NBA” is here to stay. (Sportico)
Preview Major changes could soon be coming to the All-Star Game. (ESPN)
Analysis The “unicorn” era of Anthony Davis may be over, but could the “Lakers AD” era just be starting? (The Ringer)
League at Large
Three players to pay closer attention to
De’Aaron Fox
After historic back-to-back nights over the weekend I hope the Kings’ De’Aaron Fox is on your radar. Fox delivered a 60 point game against the Timberwolves on Friday (the Kings, after all that, could not wrestle away the win) and then 49 points against the Jazz in a winning game on Saturday. While these scoring numbers are certainly a touch more astronomical than Fox’s norm, he’s still an athlete who’s averaged 25 points per game in the last three seasons.
Beyond pure shooting, Fox is a pleasure to watch. I mean that in an artful sense, like taking your time in a gallery or museum and letting your eyes rove over every flourish and detail. Fox has a knack for hang time, able to lightly adjust his body mid-air to tweak the angle of his jumper just so. It’s a bane to defenders because it’s nearly impossible to pre-calculate where Fox will wind up releasing the ball, but it’s startling, and fun, to see.
His passing follows the same rules. Namely: his own. One hand flings and scoops to teammates running down the lane, or flashing out to the wing, dependent on the sort of timing it takes trust and seasons of practice to nail. It speaks to the cohesiveness of the Kings, a team many are still quick to dismiss from contention but who will prove a difficult team to match up against once their roster returns to full strength.
Cade Cunningham
Admittedly, I hadn’t been paying that close of attention to Cade Cunningham, even with my well documented dedication to the Detroit Pistons. I changed that last Friday when the team was in Toronto to face the Raptors, and I spent a good chunk of pregame warmups watching Cunningham run through his drills.
There’s a new level of patience to Cade, who’s been — by circumstance — forced into holding pattern since he entered the NBA. This new level filters through his game. There’s still the juddery, at times mesmerizing, stop-start motion of his handle and with it the ability to force the pace he wants in a game, but now Cade’s letting the game come to him. Where there simply isn’t time to draw out a possession, or altering one might upend his team’s momentum (momentum has been something Detroit is relying on this season, to their benefit), Cade instead adopts the rhythm of the floor in motion. Now into his forth season, his maturation is evident, and it’s winning games.
Jabari Smith
It’s felt a touch disingenuous, how down on Jabari Smith those in the wider sphere of the Houston Rockets have been this season. Yes, he’s had some slow shooting nights, and made some frustrating decisions, but he’s also come back in the games that follow those less than stellar performances and done all the right things — leading to wins.
Smith’s a third year player in the league on a franchise that only really started to get the foundation of their rebuild right last season. He’s learning to adjust to quicker pace, tighter and more effortful defence (the Rockets are the league’s best rebounders), and what it means to actually compete versus playing at the whims of a single game, on a game-to-game basis. There’s continuity showing here, and it’s great.
Smith tends to have his best rebounding games when he’s also scoring, which just tells me that energy generated on one end of the floor is essential for him at the other. It’s also true of younger players — and teams, like the Rockets — learning what it is to stay consistent through a game’s many tide-turns.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Raptors podcasts.
Thursday — Would you rather be the Raptors or Sixers for the next 5 years? w/ Trill Bro Dude Sean is joined by Trill Bro Dude from the You Know Ball podcast to talk about the Raptors and Sixers, both near the bottom of the Eastern Conference, but with very different outlooks both now and in the future.
Wednesday — What’s More Likely?! featuring Hot Take Heindl Sean is joined by Katie Heindl (Locked On Newsletters) to play a few rounds of our favourite parlour game: What’s More Likely?! We get into either-or questions about Jakob Poeltl’s future in Toronto, how the Raptors stack up with the Bucks and Sixers, and who will start more games to close the season between Ochai Agbaji and Gradey Dick. This episode also features the debut of Hot Take Heindl, the greatest take artist to ever live.
Tuesday — RJ Barrett plays closer vs. Pacers; Raptors snap 7-game losing stream Sean and Vivek Jacob (Raptors in 7, Sportsnet) talk about the Raptors’ 130-119 win over the Pacers, RJ Barrett’s masterful work on the ball and where it fits into the team when Scottie Barnes comes back, Jakob Poeltl’s heater and The Good, The Bad & The Hmm from Monday’s game.
