Philip Rossman-Reich here, the host of the daily Locked On Magic podcast, with your daily Locked On Magic newsletter. Each day we bring you the biggest stories about the Magic and the NBA, including the hottest links to other stories you need to read. Plus, Josh Lloyd delivers daily fantasy notes to crush your league.
Shooting only reduces the Orlando Magic’s margin for error
Nov 20, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA;Los Angeles Clippers center Ivica Zubac (40) and guard Kris Dunn (8) defend a shot by Orlando Magic guard Anthony Black (0) in the second half at Intuit Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images|Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
After every loss, it seems eyes turn to one stat on the score sheet.
It is a broken record that the Orlando Magic struggle to shoot. They have the worst 3-point field goal percentage in the league and made only 8 of 35 3-pointers in their 104-93 loss to the LA Clippers. It marked the eighth time the Magic shot worse than 30 percent from three and the season’s third-worst 3-point shooting performance.
In a league that is more obsessed with 3-point shooting, a team that is missing threes and especially one missing threes at this rate is alarming.
It is costing the team games. Even a halfway decent shooting effort in any of these games would be enough to give this defense a shot to win. The Magic’s defense gave them a chance to win even with their poor shooting in Wednesday’s game.
The Magic stayed afloat as they chased the lead against the Clippers throughout the game. They only succumbed to defeat during a 21-4 run that extended the Clippers’ lead to 19 points. At that point, playing without a three-point shot became too much for the Magic to overcome.
Orlando can win without shooting. Or without elite shooting. Shooting is a way to cover up the team’s other shortcomings. It is a crutch many teams can lean on to reduce their margin for error.
It is not something the Magic can lean on – even if they are creating plenty of good looks and doing the right things by taking more threes this year than they did last year. The Magic continue to profess the process of the threes they take is a good one – perhaps not in this game with the Clippers’ physical defense.
But if the Magic will struggle to make threes and lose ground beyond the arc, that means they have to make up for it elsewhere. They have to dominate other parts of the game.
Their defense is the primary way they stay in games. It is the backbone of everything they do. But the path to victory also means they have to reduce turnovers (14 for 18 points for the Magic compared to forcing 25 turnovers for 25 points from the Clippers). It means they have to limit transition opportunities that can beat the defense (16-10 in the Magic’s favor Wednesday). It means they must win the paint (48-40 in the Magic’s favor too).
It means they have to dominate the glass. Orlando leads the league in defensive rebound rate. But in Monday’s win over the Phoenix Suns and again in Wednesday’s loss to the LA Clippers, the Magic got beat on the glass. Ivica Zubac had eight offensive rebounds on his own as the Clippers gathered 15 for 17 second-chance points. The Magic grabbed only two offensive rebounds total.
Giving away that many possessions – particularly during that third-quarter run – is just too much for a Magic team with shooting deficiencies to overcome. Orlando is playing catch-up in that way. The Magic are playing from behind because of their poor shooting.
Shooting matters for this team. Life would be a lot easier if they could make shots. But the Magic have a way to win without it. The Magic can survive without shooting.
A refrain I’ve increasingly heard from casuals, like the talking heads on the NBA’s biggest broadcast partners, is that the league is too homogenous these days, that every team just goes out there and chucks up threes. Every game is the same.
Leaving aside the shortsightedness of famous, influential media analysts dumping on their own product, it’s a common enough complaint that I felt an urge to investigate. My eyeballs tell me the league’s never been more diverse and fun, thanks largely to the absurd wealth of stars today with skill sets as bespoke as their draft night suits. Jokic’s Nuggets look nothing like Tatum’s Celtics look nothing like Brunson’s Knicks, and to suggest otherwise is willful ignorance.
As I wrote about for Basketball Poetry yesterday, the current top five offenses are Boston, Cleveland, New York, the Lakers, and Dallas. Those five teams rank first, 14th, 17th, 24th, and 21st, respectively, in share of shots that are triples. You certainly don’t need to launch a million threes relative to your peers to score the basketball successfully.
Of course, that’s a rather superficial analysis. Regardless of rank, what if the absolute numbers are all getting closer together? That would represent a growing sameness.
I looked at shot data from this season, a decade ago, and 20 years ago to see how much the share of three-pointers had changed.
Mike Shearer (@bballispoetry) has written about the NBA full-time since 2021 at various and sundry places. For more from Mike, check out his Substack bestseller, Basketball Poetry, where he uses unnecessary metaphors and the occasional haiku to discuss the NBA’s happenings with an analytical lens.
Home and Away
Stat Owen Phillips of The F5 looks at how often centers defend guards, how often perimeter players are involuntarily guarded by centers (aka the Tony Allen effect), and much more in his analytical newsletter.
Analysis Jared Dubin of Last Night, In Basketball discusses something related: what kind of players are guarding point guards these days?
Must Read Marcus Thompson II of The Athletic talks about the NBA’s increasing difficulty for defensive-minded, old
Injury There’s speculation that Paolo Banchero might return by Christmas from his torn oblique muscle, offering hope to Magic fans. (Sports Illustrated)
Preview The Magic will face off against the Lakers in a showdown at the Crypto.com Arena at 10:30 PM ET. Read the preview.(NBA)
Fantasy Cheat Sheet
The Randomness Of Fantasy Basketball On A Wednesday In The NBA
Nov 20, 2024; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Paul George (8) drives to the basket as Memphis Grizzlies forward Jaylen Wells (0) defends during the first half at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images|Petre Thomas/Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Top Five Fantasy Takeaways from Wednesday’s Games
1. Paul George’s Knee Injury Concerns
Paul George’s knee hyperextension during the 76ers vs. Grizzlies game is a significant concern for fantasy managers. While initial reports suggest no structural damage, his availability in the coming games is uncertain. This situation could open up opportunities for other players on the 76ers to step up, making it crucial to monitor updates closely.
2. Unpredictable Pelicans vs. Cavaliers Game
The Pelicans vs. Cavaliers matchup was a bizarre affair, with unexpected lineups and performances. Elfrid Payton started for the Pelicans, and Jaylon Tyson shone for the Cavs, but these anomalies are unlikely to have long-term fantasy implications. Managers should view this game as an outlier and avoid making hasty roster changes based on these performances.
3. Pacers’ Struggles and Tyrese Haliburton’s Slump
The Pacers are facing challenges, particularly with Tyrese Haliburton’s shooting woes. His road performance has been notably poor, possibly due to lingering back issues. Despite this, Haliburton’s track record suggests a turnaround is likely, making him a prime buy-low candidate for managers willing to take a risk on his recovery.
Click the button below to see how Norman Powell’s injury could open up opportunities for the Clippers, and a top 50 player returns to action.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Magic podcasts.
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