Sean Woodley here, the host of the daily Locked On Raptors podcast, with your daily Locked On Raptors newsletter. Each day we bring you the biggest stories about the Raptors and the NBA, including the hottest links to other stories you need to read. Plus, Josh Lloyd delivers daily fantasy notes to crush your league.
It’s a Locked On Raptors Mailbag! Which rookies will stick in the rotation at full health? And more!
Nov 2, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors forward Jonathan Mogbo (2) tries to block a shot by Sacramento Kings forward DeMar DeRozan (10) during overtime at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images|John E. Sokolowski/John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Look, I’m human. While I like to think I’m pretty good at pulling stuff to talk about from thin air, sometimes, usually during a spell of off days, you’re man needs shut off his brain and let you lot do the work.
This past week’s mass BlueSky migration has made question collection easier and more pleasant than ever. The podcast Discord server is still the place to get your questions answered on the show proper, but from time to time going forward I’ll open up the mentions on the shiny new poster’s haven to put together the newsletter. Here’s what The People wanted to know in the first edition. Follow me on BlueSky to so you can see future prompts for questions.
Raptors Wire asks: When (if) the Raptors are fully healthy, do you envision any of Shead, Mogbo, Walter or Battle remaining part of the Raptors rotation? Or all with the 905?
Right now I think Mogbo is the only one of these four with a shot at sticking in a healthier version of the rotation. Shead is gonna have developmental value as a shepherd for the G-League team and Ulrich Chomche, and needs to hone own his craft/shot as well. Walter probably needs to follow the Gradey Dick arc to get some serious in-game reps and maybe a couple turns through the weight room, while Battle, on top of his 50 days of NBA time already ticking down, just hasn’t been effective enough once more guys get back.
I hear you if you think Mogbo needs some time with the 905 to refine the offensive package, but I’m a big believer in getting NBA reps at the position you figure to occupy long-term. Right now, he’s a switchy, connective, undersized backup five, which I imagine he’ll be in 3-4 years time, just more honed. I’m badly yearning to see a Barnes-Olynyk-Mogbo front court trio at some point this year. That trio has the goods, complimentary skills-wise.
Emma asks: Do you think Jakob Poeltl is still a Raptor after the trade deadline?
I do. Part of the “appeal” of moving Jak in season would have been to help bolster the team’s lottery odds. Well, it seems like that’s gonna take care of itself. Poeltl is far from perfect, but I maintain that you can’t trade him away unless you have a surefire succession plan to have another seasoned adult occupying his role on the team. You’re just not getting someone like that in a deadline deal with a contender.
Next year, this team gets expensive. It’s go time. And I don’t think the damage done to the team’s functionality by shipping Jak out for futures is worth whatever those futures may or may not turn into someday. Jak is this team’s Jonas Valanciunas. Maybe you need to hunt an upgrade when it’s time to earnestly contend. They’re many, many miles from that bridge, though, and Poeltl will make the trip far smoother.
Sneachtúil asks: What archetype would you prioritize adding to this core via draft/trade/free agency in the next calendar year?
The trade/free agency part of this equation all stems from the draft. In all likelihood, the Raptors are gonna pick quite high in June 2025, and who they get there will inform what comes next, whether it’s a consolidation trade, a roster-balancing, good player-for-good player swap, or an unlikely/financially impossible free agent swing. The nice thing about needing a lot of things is that they’re unlikely to get tied in knots by the fit vs. true talent conundrum when the do come up on the clock. You take a guy, then scour the league for guys who fix your other issues.
That’s the long answer. The short answer is: Trey Murphy III.
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Today on the podcast I field more of your questions! Darko Rajakovic’s grade thus far, a Cooper Flagg what-if, Jonathan Mogbo’s outlook and more get covered! Enjoy the show.
Traditionally, press defenses are a weapon of last resort in the NBA, fit only for highly specific scenarios or times of desperation. Professional basketball players simply are too good at passing and dribbling to be susceptible to large doses of full-court press — or so the thinking went. But the thinking, it is a-changin’.
Synergy’s database goes back to the 2008-2009 season, and before last year, only one team had used press on even 5% of their defensive possessions: the 2020-21 Charlotte Hornets.
Last year, however, we saw a notable rise in the press defense, thanks to two teams. The Portland Trail Blazers and Indiana Pacers both beat Charlotte’s mark. Portland led the league by pressing 7.2% of the time, yielding only .94 points per possession (well below their typical defensive rating of 1.04, although that’s not by any means an apples-to-apples comparison), and I predicted that this year, the Blazers — featuring heavy doses of ambulatory fly paper Toumani Camara — would crack 10%.
I had the right idea but the wrong team. Instead, the Pacers are currently pressing 11.9% of the time, followed closely by Brooklyn’s 11.5% (the Blazers come in third, with a still historically high 8.4%). In retrospect, Indiana’s surging interest in the press shouldn’t be a huge surprise — they picked up full-court on nearly a quarter of their possessions in last year’s playoffs. That’s insane!
They haven’t been quite that extreme this year, but look at this graph of every team’s percentage of defensive possessions in press defense:
Six teams in total are pressing more than 5% of the time. 22 of the league’s 30 teams are pressing more this year than last (with the caveat that we’re talking about a couple dozen possessions or fewer for many of these teams), and this is by far the most press we’ve seen since the data became available. Given the weaknesses we mentioned in the opening paragraph, why is the press gaining popularity?
Katie Heindl is a credentialed NBA and WNBA writer, her bylines have appeared with The New York Times Magazine, SLAM, The Athletic, Yahoo Sports, Dime, Rolling Stone, among others. She writes the bestselling Substack, Basketball Feelings and is working on a book of the same name.
Mike Shearer (@bballispoetry) has written about the NBA full-time since 2021 at various and sundry places. For more from Mike, check out his Substack bestseller, Basketball Poetry, where he uses unnecessary metaphors and the occasional haiku to discuss the NBA’s happenings with an analytical lens.
Home and Away
Analysis
Sam Vecenie of the Athletic breaks down how this year’s rookies have started. I don’t agree with all of his picks, but he’s always thoughtful with his selections and insightful with his analysis. (The Athletic, ubscription required)
Personnel
HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto goes behind the scenes with the Indiana Pacers’ coaching staff. Mostly, you get a better appreciation for how little coaches sleep! (HoopsHype)
Must Read
Jared Dubin investigates the rise in dunks over time for his newsletter “Last Night, In Basketball.” It’s a fun, breezy read! (Last Night, In Basketball)
Fans
Paying tribute to the dunk GOAT. The Raptors unveiled their City Edition jerseys for this season. (NBA)
Stat
Sports Illustrated breaks down five stats that explains the Raptors’ start to the season. (SI)
Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Wednesday’s Notable Fantasy Basketball Performances
Nov 13, 2024; Portland, Oregon, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves shooting guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker (9) shoots the ball against Portland Trail Blazers center Donovan Clingan (23) during the first half at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-Imagn Images|Photo By Soobum Im/Soobum Im-Imagn Images
In the ever-evolving world of fantasy basketball, keeping an eye on emerging talents and consistent performers is key to maintaining a competitive edge. Let’s delve into the standout performances of three young guns, as well as the continued dominance of Giannis, and explore their potential impact on your fantasy lineup.
Donovan Clingan: A Rising Star?
Donovan Clingan’s recent performance has caught the attention of fantasy managers everywhere. With 31 minutes on the court, Clingan delivered an impressive stat line of 17 points, 12 rebounds, and a staggering eight blocks. His ability to dominate the paint and contribute defensively makes him a valuable asset, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Deandre Ayton’s injury status. While Clingan’s long-term role remains uncertain, his current form makes him a must-add in fantasy leagues, particularly for those in need of blocks and rebounds.
Jared McCain: Rookie on the Rise
Jared McCain has quickly become a hot topic in fantasy circles, thanks to his explosive performance in the absence of key players like Paul George and Joel Embiid. McCain’s 34-point game, complete with six three-pointers and 10 assists, showcases his potential as a high-usage player. While his current role is bolstered by injuries to teammates, McCain’s talent is undeniable. Fantasy managers should consider adding him to their rosters, but remain cautious about his long-term value once the team’s stars return.
Click the button below to see how Giannis continues to be a fantasy force, and why for Victor Wembanyama, the future is now.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Raptors podcasts.
Thursday — Would you rather be the Raptors or Sixers for the next 5 years? w/ Trill Bro Dude Sean is joined by Trill Bro Dude from the You Know Ball podcast to talk about the Raptors and Sixers, both near the bottom of the Eastern Conference, but with very different outlooks both now and in the future.
Wednesday — What’s More Likely?! featuring Hot Take Heindl Sean is joined by Katie Heindl (Locked On Newsletters) to play a few rounds of our favourite parlour game: What’s More Likely?! We get into either-or questions about Jakob Poeltl’s future in Toronto, how the Raptors stack up with the Bucks and Sixers, and who will start more games to close the season between Ochai Agbaji and Gradey Dick. This episode also features the debut of Hot Take Heindl, the greatest take artist to ever live.
Tuesday — RJ Barrett plays closer vs. Pacers; Raptors snap 7-game losing stream Sean and Vivek Jacob (Raptors in 7, Sportsnet) talk about the Raptors’ 130-119 win over the Pacers, RJ Barrett’s masterful work on the ball and where it fits into the team when Scottie Barnes comes back, Jakob Poeltl’s heater and The Good, The Bad & The Hmm from Monday’s game.
