Sean Woodley here, the host of the daily Locked On Raptors podcast, with your daily Locked On Raptors newsletter. Each day we bring you the biggest stories about the Raptors and the NBA, including the hottest links to other stories you need to read. Plus, Josh Lloyd delivers daily fantasy notes to crush your league.
Toxic Positivity Friday! The Kansas boys are legit.
Mar 15, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard Gradey Dick (left) and guard Ochai Agbaji (right) during player introductions before a game against the Orlando Magic at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports|John E. Sokolowski/John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Five straight losses, the 28th-ranked defense, an offense starting to hit the wall, and half the rotation sidelined for a while still to come. I’m torn between my desires to keep the toxic positivity bit rolling, and to not be totally disingenuous with my audience.
I love anyone who rocks with the podcast or the newsletter deeply, and am wildly appreciative of all the ways in which you support my work. But I’m sorry. I’m choosing the bit.
This week we turn our toxicity towards Gradey Dick and Ochai Agbaji, the pair of former Jayhawks making lemonade out of a challenging team context for anyone, let alone off-ball amplifier types like they both are.
That Dick (58.5% true shooting) and Agbaji (68.7%) are enjoying remarkable efficiency booms, while the advantage creators that are supposed to make their lives and looks easier are sidelined, is probably the story of the Raptors season. They’ve been tossed feet-first into the fire, and instead of melting, they’re stamping it right out.
Such an extreme early season crash course can only be good for both Dick and Agbaji in the long-run, one would think. For Dick, thrust into offensive savior duty for this team, he’s had no choice but to push back against the ever-increasing care with which opposing teams are scheming against him.
Asked by TSN’s Josh Lewenberg about Dick’s evolution into a frenetic, ground-covering, minutes-eater at practice Thursday, coach Darko Rajakovic commented on the sophomore’s ability to adapt on the fly.
“The way he plays, the way he’s working out, he’s constantly on the move,” said Rajakovic. “In a couple games teams were trying to top lock him in off ball screens, and he did not do a good job of finding options and how to play.”
“But especially this last game (in Milwaukee) he was able to get more on the move, and not just settle, not allow them to top lock... and that opened up a lot of his open shots.”
A big reason player development isn’t linear is that other teams don’t allow it to be. It’s onward and upward until advanced scouts dig up the dirt and the league gets wise to what you’re up to. This is the push and pull Dick’s facing now, and at warp speed due to circumstance.
For Agbaji, there seems to be more of a wait and see approach to his lights out shooting for the defenses scheming to stop the Raptors. Three of his four nightly attempts from deep are completely wide open, per NBA.com’s sometimes noisy shot tracking data; 0.9 are classified as merely open (closest defender 4-6 feet away). Teams are waiting to see if this unseasonably hot stretch is a full on shift in climate for Agbaji, which is fair enough considering his wider body of work. He probably won’t bury 48% of his triples forever, nor will he keep on hitting 64.5% of all his twos. If he does, he’s a couple summers from being a very rich man. There’s enough other good stuff going on with his game, from his team-best perimeter defense to his cerebral floor game, that a regression to somewhere mean-adjacent won’t eliminate his utility, either.
Healthy lead initiators should go a long way towards extending the good times for the Kansas Boys. Things only stand to get easier for Dick and Agbaji once the leverage and attention that, say, Scottie Barnes demands is back in the mix and forcing defenses to make uncomfortable compromises. His return to practice yesterday, adorned with a cool ass protective mask, suggests we’re on the road to a Barnes return at some point in the not-too-distant future.
When that happens, and more guys begin filtering back to boot, the degree of difficulty for Dick and Agbaji is sure to drop. Considering how impressive results the results have been with their feet put firmly to the coals, I’m not sure how you can’t feel positively about how that’ll look.
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Today on the podcast Katie Heindl joined me for another round of Toxic Positivity Friday where we chatted about the hopefulness of only being able to go up from the bottom of the standings, Dick & Agbaji, NBA Cup fever and more. Enjoy the show, and have a great weekend!
I held off on writing about the apparent rash, or rise, of early-season athlete injuries because there’s always some recency bias involved when the subject comes up. Are there really more injuries this year than any other? Do we have the data to support it? Is there a new, underlying cause? Or are injuries due to the same compounding mix of bad luck and the NBA’s 82-game schedule running into a long postseason, running into the offseason, running back into a brand new long regular season and the erosion of bodies this eventually leads to?
A report early this week showed early-season injuries were up 35%, and indeed ESPN’s list of injuries, at a glance, looks like a ferocious Christmas tree, lit up in blazing reds and yellows. A handful of teams (the Grizzlies, Pelicans, Raptors) are cobbling together rosters game-to-game depending on who’s still healthy. TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott ran a draft of the injured list this week and each team reads like an All-Star squad on steroids, and when Abbott printed out the league’s official injury report it was 10 pages long.
Injuries are definitely up — but why?
The Paris Olympics proved extra playing time for a few top-tier stars, but most of them remain healthy. The early season schedule hasn’t served up any more back-to-backs to longer road game stretches, which tend to be more gruelling on athletes, than usual. However, when everything appears to be normal and the bodily price is anything but, perhaps it’s time to examine that “normal”.
The NBA’s current schedule of 82 games was adopted in 1967. Already, I’m sure your brain is picturing black and white basketball, that’s good. When you picture that grainy, glitchy footage, how fast is it going? The reality is that the game used to be a lot slower. Not just in its mechanics (think of an offensive passing sequence, the ball flipping from set of hands to hands at a speed that can be hard to follow), but the athleticism too. Bodies were moving slower. The game was still physical — the trope of players from the 80s and 90s complaining about the “softness” of current athletes is a trope for a reason — but full tilt sprinting, cutting, complex rotations, these weren’t the norm. Given that, the bodily mechanics were different. Guys weren’t stopping on a dime, pivoting hard, having to force their ligaments and muscles and bones into exacting motions with all sorts of volatile force behind them.
Katie Heindl is a credentialed NBA and WNBA writer, her bylines have appeared with The New York Times Magazine, SLAM, The Athletic, Yahoo Sports, Dime, Rolling Stone, among others. She writes the bestselling Substack, Basketball Feelings and is working on a book of the same name.
Analysis A few weeks into the season, and there have been some surprises. The Athletic looks at eight players to get to know better. (The Athletic, subscription required)
Analysis The Raptors are thrilled with Ochai Agbaji’s early season development. His growth is a promising sign for the team’s future success, highlighting his potential as a key contributor. (Sports Illustrated)
Preview The Raptors host the Pistons in the group stage of the NBA Cup. Read the preview.(NBA)
Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Replay: Navigating the injury bug
Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) holds his leg after a hard following a play against the Golden State Warriors during the first quarter at Paycom Center.|Photo by Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
This week in the fantasy basketball world has been a rollercoaster of highs and lows. A major talking point has been Chet Holmgren’s unfortunate injury, which has fantasy managers scrambling for replacements as the Oklahoma City Thunder adjust with potential lineup changes. Keep an eye on players like Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace — who might see increased minutes — and consider them as temporary pickups in deeper leagues.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Raptors podcasts.
Thursday — Would you rather be the Raptors or Sixers for the next 5 years? w/ Trill Bro Dude Sean is joined by Trill Bro Dude from the You Know Ball podcast to talk about the Raptors and Sixers, both near the bottom of the Eastern Conference, but with very different outlooks both now and in the future.
Wednesday — What’s More Likely?! featuring Hot Take Heindl Sean is joined by Katie Heindl (Locked On Newsletters) to play a few rounds of our favourite parlour game: What’s More Likely?! We get into either-or questions about Jakob Poeltl’s future in Toronto, how the Raptors stack up with the Bucks and Sixers, and who will start more games to close the season between Ochai Agbaji and Gradey Dick. This episode also features the debut of Hot Take Heindl, the greatest take artist to ever live.
Tuesday — RJ Barrett plays closer vs. Pacers; Raptors snap 7-game losing stream Sean and Vivek Jacob (Raptors in 7, Sportsnet) talk about the Raptors’ 130-119 win over the Pacers, RJ Barrett’s masterful work on the ball and where it fits into the team when Scottie Barnes comes back, Jakob Poeltl’s heater and The Good, The Bad & The Hmm from Monday’s game.
