Ryan Blackburn here, the host of the daily Locked On Nuggets podcast, with your daily Locked On Nuggets newsletter. Each day we bring you the biggest stories about the Nuggets and the NBA, including the hottest links to other stories you need to read. Plus, Josh Lloyd delivers daily fantasy notes to crush your league.
10 Games, 10 Takes on the Denver Nuggets
Nov 10, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) controls the ball in the first quarter against the Dallas Mavericks at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images|Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
It’s been a while since the Denver Nuggets have played a basketball game. They play tomorrow against the New Orleans Pelicans, a team struggling with copious injuries.
In the meantime, I have some takes to start the year:
Nikola Jokic is the MVP again...This one shouldn’t surprise many. He’s been incredible to start the year and looks to be the best player in the world once again.
Michael Porter Jr. has improved as a passer...He still misses some reads, but he’s averaging 2.9 assists per game, including some impressive clutch plays. Michael Malone and others have been quick to credit him for the growth.
Jamal Murray is still working his way into form...Murray’s averaging roughly 18 points and five assists per game in about 6.5 games so far. That’s not enough production for the whole year. It’s okay right now because Jokic has been tremendous, but Murray’s a needed playmaker for the Nuggets and can be better.
Christian Braun is just fine at starting shooting guard...If 16 points, five rebounds, and nearly two stocks a game wasn’t enough proof, he’s maintaining 67.2% True Shooting. That’s an incredible number for such a strong defensive player.
Russell Westbrook’s hits are more important than the misses...Think about last season’s bench for the Nuggets and how little playmaking juice their was. Reggie Jackson had 11 total games off the bench last season with 5+ assists. Westbrook has five such games already, and he started three others.
Julian Strawther shots are starting to come...Through the first five games, Strawther attempted 13 two-pointers, 11 three-pointers, and five free throws. In the five games since, he has 24 twos, 25 threes, and 11 free throws. Part of that was making up for Jamal Murray’s missed games. Part of it is the Nuggets and Strawther finding some good opportunities for him.
Peyton Watson is figuring things out...it’s pretty simple. Watson didn’t have a training camp. Now, after getting into the flow of the season, he looks better than ever. Since Aaron Gordon went down, Watson’s averaging 34.4 minutes per game. Invaluable experience.
The Backup Center spot will be a committee...Dario Saric got the first five games. DeAndre Jordan got the next two. Zeke Nnaji play played the last three. None have stood out for the right reasons. Michael Malone will have to push the right buttons night to night.
Denver’s spot in the Western Conference is tenuous...Denver’s 7-3, placing them fourth in the West. Four other teams are within two losses of them though, so Denver can’t let off the gas now.
The next Check-In will be in Atlanta...Denver plays 12 games in the next 24 days. Their final matchup in that stretch: December 8th in Atlanta. After that, the NBA Cup. That will be the best opportunity to revisit what’s working, what’s not, and where to go from there.
Traditionally, press defenses are a weapon of last resort in the NBA, fit only for highly specific scenarios or times of desperation. Professional basketball players simply are too good at passing and dribbling to be susceptible to large doses of full-court press — or so the thinking went. But the thinking, it is a-changin’.
Synergy’s database goes back to the 2008-2009 season, and before last year, only one team had used press on even 5% of their defensive possessions: the 2020-21 Charlotte Hornets.
Last year, however, we saw a notable rise in the press defense, thanks to two teams. The Portland Trail Blazers and Indiana Pacers both beat Charlotte’s mark. Portland led the league by pressing 7.2% of the time, yielding only .94 points per possession (well below their typical defensive rating of 1.04, although that’s not by any means an apples-to-apples comparison), and I predicted that this year, the Blazers — featuring heavy doses of ambulatory fly paper Toumani Camara — would crack 10%.
I had the right idea but the wrong team. Instead, the Pacers are currently pressing 11.9% of the time, followed closely by Brooklyn’s 11.5% (the Blazers come in third, with a still historically high 8.4%). In retrospect, Indiana’s surging interest in the press shouldn’t be a huge surprise — they picked up full-court on nearly a quarter of their possessions in last year’s playoffs. That’s insane!
They haven’t been quite that extreme this year, but look at this graph of every team’s percentage of defensive possessions in press defense:
Six teams in total are pressing more than 5% of the time. 22 of the league’s 30 teams are pressing more this year than last (with the caveat that we’re talking about a couple dozen possessions or fewer for many of these teams), and this is by far the most press we’ve seen since the data became available. Given the weaknesses we mentioned in the opening paragraph, why is the press gaining popularity?
Mike Shearer (@bballispoetry) has written about the NBA full-time since 2021 at various and sundry places. For more from Mike, check out his Substack bestseller, Basketball Poetry, where he uses unnecessary metaphors and the occasional haiku to discuss the NBA’s happenings with an analytical lens.
Home and Away
Analysis Sam Vecenie of the Athletic breaks down how this year’s rookies have started. I don’t agree with all of his picks, but he’s always thoughtful with his selections and insightful with his analysis. (NY Times, Subscription required)
Personnel HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto goes behind the scenes with the Indiana Pacers’ coaching staff. Mostly, you get a better appreciation for how little coaches sleep!
Must Read Jared Dubin investigates the rise in dunks over time for his newsletter “Last Night, In Basketball.” It’s a fun, breezy read! (Last Night, Subscription required)
Trending NBA players had a lot to say about Russell Westbrook’s Instagram post. Their reactions ranged from supportive to candid, sparking a lively conversation online. (Sports Illustrated)
Must Read Could Nikola Jokic actually be getting even better. The Ringer makes the case that the three-time MVP is hitting another level.
Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Wednesday’s Notable Fantasy Basketball Performances
Nov 13, 2024; Portland, Oregon, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves shooting guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker (9) shoots the ball against Portland Trail Blazers center Donovan Clingan (23) during the first half at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-Imagn Images|Photo By Soobum Im/Soobum Im-Imagn Images
In the ever-evolving world of fantasy basketball, keeping an eye on emerging talents and consistent performers is key to maintaining a competitive edge. Let’s delve into the standout performances of three young guns, as well as the continued dominance of Giannis, and explore their potential impact on your fantasy lineup.
Donovan Clingan: A Rising Star?
Donovan Clingan’s recent performance has caught the attention of fantasy managers everywhere. With 31 minutes on the court, Clingan delivered an impressive stat line of 17 points, 12 rebounds, and a staggering eight blocks. His ability to dominate the paint and contribute defensively makes him a valuable asset, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Deandre Ayton’s injury status. While Clingan’s long-term role remains uncertain, his current form makes him a must-add in fantasy leagues, particularly for those in need of blocks and rebounds.
Jared McCain: Rookie on the Rise
Jared McCain has quickly become a hot topic in fantasy circles, thanks to his explosive performance in the absence of key players like Paul George and Joel Embiid. McCain’s 34-point game, complete with six three-pointers and 10 assists, showcases his potential as a high-usage player. While his current role is bolstered by injuries to teammates, McCain’s talent is undeniable. Fantasy managers should consider adding him to their rosters, but remain cautious about his long-term value once the team’s stars return.
Click the button below to see how Giannis continues to be a fantasy force, and why for Victor Wembanyama, the future is now.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Nuggets podcasts.
Can Nuggets win Title if Nikola Jokic goes GOD MODE? Matt and Ryan discuss Nikola Jokic’s ability to carry the Nuggets, the backup center debate involving Aaron Gordon, and their thoughts on the NBA Cup.
Nikola Jokic is Ascending the All-Time Great Tier | Braun and Watson’s Improvement Nikola Jokic is having maybe the best start to an NBA season...ever? Swipa breaks it down, along with the improvements of Christian Braun and Peyton Watson.
Nikola Jokic INSANE Night | Nuggets Beat Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving Matt and Ryan break down the Denver Nuggets clutch win over the Dallas Mavericks. Michael Porter Jr. hit a clutch floater, Nikola Jokic continues to dominate, and the Nuggets went 5-0 at home.
