Sean Woodley here, the host of the daily Locked On Raptors podcast, with your daily Locked On Raptors newsletter. Each day we bring you the biggest stories about the Raptors and the NBA, including the hottest links to other stories you need to read. Plus, Josh Lloyd delivers daily fantasy notes to crush your league.
With the NBA season starting tonight, let’s get some definitely correct league-wide and Raptors predictions on wax.
Feb 26, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Toronto Raptors guard Immanuel Quickley (5) celebrates in the second half against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports|Trevor Ruszkowski/Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Today is my favourite day of the year on the Locked On Raptors podcast. Our 8th Annual Over/Unders & Props Contest with Vivek Jacob and Sahal Abdi hits all the feeds, which means it’s day one of a new NBA season, and thus the final day where all of my predictions are unassailable. It’s important to appreciate these fleeting moments of bliss.
To pair with today’s pod, where we make our picks on all kinds of Raptors-themed bets for the year, here’s my definitely correct take on how the league at large will shake out this season.
Eastern Conference
1. Boston — Gross 2. New York — People are overthinking them 3. Cleveland — That top four is real good, fit be damned 4. Philly — Injury stuff scares me 5. Indiana — So many buckets 6. Milwaukee — Old, creaky, saving it for the playoffs — 7. Miami — A true enigma 8. Orlando — Get a guard please 9. Atlanta — Narrowest range of outcomes of any team 10. Toronto — Someone needs to finish here; Scottie Barnes is the best player on any of the bottom six; sorry to the lottery-lovin’ freaks — 11. Charlotte — Can finish 10th if LaMelo stays on the floor... 12. Detroit — Good enough to see a 10-12 win increase, but it’s a long way up from 14 13. Chicago — The Giddey lead guard experiment will be a catastrophe 14. Brooklyn — Go off, Cam 15. Washington — Coulibaly’s rad!
Western Conference
1. OKC — Shai wins MVP 2. Minnesota — Hated the Towns deal, but they’ll feel it more in the playoffs 3. Denver — They’re not dead yet 4. Dallas — A darn scary 4-seed 5. Phoenix — Dallas will wax them 6. Golden State — That’s a lot of good NBA players on one roster — 7. Memphis — Can totally finish 2nd, don’t trust the health or fit 8. Rockets — Let Şengün cook 9. Pelicans — Dejounte Murray never has the desired effect; Ingram weirdness is this year’s Pascal Siakam saga 10. Kings — I want to like them more, but the DeMar fit is tough to square — 11. Lakers — Tough conference to only have 3 good players in 12. Spurs — Wemby can’t do everything 13. Clippers — Truly upsetting 14. Blazers — They have a real starting five 15. Jazz — It feels like they want this, and rosters full of children tend to lose
Playoffs
First Round (1)Boston over (8)Orlando (2)NYK over (7)Miami (6) Milwaukee over (3)Cleveland (4)Philly over (5)Indiana
(1)OKC over (8)Houston (2)Minnesota over (3)Memphis (3)Denver over (6)Golden State (4)Dallas over (5)Phoenix
Second Round (1)Boston over (4)Philly (2)NYK over (6)Milwaukee
(4)Dallas over (1)OKC (3)Denver over (2)Minnesota
Conference Finals (2)NYK over (1)Boston — Do I actually believe, this? No. But sometimes we gotta speak good things into the world.
(3)Denver over (4)Dallas
Finals
Denver over New York in a classic, during which Knicks fans will be Very Normal.
Oct 17, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) runs down the court after scoring against the Atlanta Hawks during the first quarter at Paycom Center.|Alonzo Adams/Imagn Images
As a Canadian, I only really think of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s nationality when I see that he’s spending time here in the summers – I mean this as a positive. The Olympics were a patriotic anomaly (that unfortunately flamed out), but the fact of where he’s from is not relevant to his player and star profile, because Gilgeous-Alexander has made himself universal.
This is a rarity for all NBA athletes, think of the handful of transcendent and globally embraced stars: Steph Curry, LeBron James, Kevin Durant. It’s even rarer, ironically, for international players, who seem to have to shake the gravity of where they’re from to be embraced as bonafide stars (I was going to make a comment about American imperialism, but this is only our second newsletter).
Steve Nash is the last Canadian athlete who comes to mind, for his recognition but also his unique skillset, individual style and how, reacting to match and adjust to him, the game necessarily shifted. That’s another trait of the universal star: they bring lasting changes to the way basketball is played.
I think of the way Gilgeous-Alexander works the floor, like his personal metronome is three beats ahead. He’ll drive to the basket only to pirouette out from under the rim, fake a wide side-step to lose his defenders, then slide back for an underhanded feathery lob up and in. He knows which way everyone is going and for a few rare seconds, watching him, you too feel like you’ve been granted the gift of basketball foresight. He’s crafty, quick, and the bane of rival team scouting staff for his off-balancing ball handling and smooth-but-juddery footwork. Like a magnet, defenders get drawn to him, defensive schemes go out the window, he upends calculable order.
Katie Heindl is a credentialed NBA and WNBA writer, her bylines have appeared with The New York Times Magazine, SLAM, The Athletic, Yahoo Sports, Dime, Rolling Stone, among others. She writes the bestselling Substack, Basketball Feelings and is working on a book of the same name.
Home and Away
Hired
Sportsnet is welcoming former Raptors star Vince Carter as a broadcaster for select games this season. The NBA Hall of Famer will be in the booth for the home opener tomorrow.
Odds
NBA betting experts have season predictions for the Raptors: Barnes will win Most Improved Player and the team will win more than 29.5 games. (ESPN)
Contract
Kevin Pelton of ESPN+ looks at some of the biggest rookie-extension deadline deals from yesterday (plus Aaron Gordon), analyzing the salary structure and impact for each team’s future cap flexibility.
Preview
Ready, set, chaos. Shaun Powell of NBA.com gives us 10 clues for what he says is a truly unpredictable season. Some intriguing storylines for the coming season include an array of comebacks (Lonzo Ball and Ja Morant, among others), the unheralded rookie class, burgeoning NBA rivalries, and much more.
Analysis
Leonard Solms writes for ESPN about Godwin Owinje, an NBA scout working to broaden the Africa-NBA pipeline, and how the continent will play a major role in the league’s next era.
Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Basketball Week One: Navigating Waiver Wire and Schedule Strategies
Memphis Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr. (13) reacts in the third quarter against the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum.
|Photo by Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
As we dive into the first week of fantasy basketball, it’s crucial to approach the waiver wire with a strategic mindset. The initial week often sees a flurry of activity, with managers eager to make moves based on early performances. However, it’s important to remember that the best waiver wire pickups often emerge from the worst drops. This week, there might be a player or two who unexpectedly rises to prominence, but it’s essential not to hastily drop proven performers after a single poor game.
Strategic Streaming and Schedule Insights
Streaming can be a valuable strategy, but in week one, it’s less critical. I’m comfortable taking a loss early on if it means avoiding rash decisions. Many managers will panic over injuries or subpar performances, leading to valuable players being dropped. This is where patience pays off. If a player like Isaiah Hartenstein is dropped due to a minor injury or a bad game, consider adding them to your roster.
Understanding Quality Games
Understanding the concept of quality games is vital. These are games played on days with fewer than ten matchups, allowing you to maximize your roster’s output. This week, Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday are quality game days. Teams like Boston, Minnesota, and Oklahoma City play on two of these days, making their players valuable streaming options.
Conversely, teams like Charlotte, Chicago, and Cleveland don’t have any quality games, meaning their fringe players might not see much action. It’s essential to evaluate your roster and determine if adding a player from a team with more quality games could benefit you.
As we gear up for the season, remember that fantasy basketball is a marathon, not a sprint. Making informed decisions and staying patient will set you up for success. For more insights and a deeper dive into fantasy basketball strategies, tune into the Locked On Fantasy Basketball podcast for this and much more.
Don’t let these episodes pass you by — stay locked in with the latest Locked On Raptors podcasts.
Monday — Final Preseason Takeaways; Scottie looks ready, final roster spots & Ochai’s outlook Sean goes solo to run through his biggest takeaways from the preseason, why he’s buying — to an extent — what the Raptors were selling in their five tune-up games, the final roster decisions, Ochai Agbaji’s strong preseason, Davion Mitchell’s offensive struggles and much more.
Friday — What if the Toronto Raptors underachieve this year? And is that even possible? Sean goes solo to talk about the flip side of Thursday’s topic, and dig into what an underachievement would look like in 2024-25, why it’s way more tied to individual player performance than raw win-loss total, and the consequences of a disappointing year, even by rebuilding team standards.
Thursday — What if the Raptors overachieve in 2024-25, and what would it look like? Sean goes solo to talk about what an overachievement would look like for the Raptors this season. What if Scottie Barnes makes the All-NBA leap, and what if the offense is... good? Plus, Josh Lloyd of Locked On Fantasy Basketball checks in to rip apart the Locked On Raptors fantasy league draft.
