The Toronto Raptors are not a very good basketball team! Friday’s loss to a Milwaukee Bucks squad that totally owns them put a real halt to the good vibes that were forming after a pair of fun wins last week. And while I still maintain the top end of this roster is of higher quality than a 20-win season would indicate, we’ve gotten a whole lot of proof this year that this team needs more.
Whether it’s with a fresh new leading man who pushes everyone down into their ideal rungs on the team hierarchy, or a helpful addition that helps flesh out the depth and makes life easier for the somewhat overextended lead creators the team currently employs, the top of this year’s NBA Draft is the next chance for the Raptors to snag a much-needed talent infusion.
With us now into the second half of the schedule and the Raptors only really having lottery standing to play (or not play) for, it’s time we starting turning one eye towards June with my first swing at a ranking of the best matches between the Raptors and the top tier prospects in this class.
We’re only going five deep, because for the moment, I refuse to acknowledge the possibility that this hell season may yield a pick lower than fifth-overall. We’ll get to probability doomerism another time.
Anyway, here’s what I’ve got. Keep in mind, I’m by no means a died-in-the-wool Draft Guy. I read a bunch, watch what I can, and seek the opinions of draft experts whose takes I trust to inform my overall feelings on prospects, especially this early in the process. This list will absolutely change as I spend more time doing my own digging, but here we go!
1. Cooper Flagg, Forward, Duke
An absolute no-brainer number one pick, and the guy who pmakes this whole rebuild make sense if the Raptors are lucky enough to take him. Though no guarantee, he has the upside to be a franchise-changing offensive engine who also addresses the Raptors’ glaring need for high-end defensive talent next to Scottie Barnes. Flagg and Barnes as a 3/4 duo would absolutely slap, and would make Immanuel Quickley’s job of guiding the team a whole lot less burdensome. Dude’s real good! Just ignore the fact that even in the best case scenario, the chances he becomes a Raptor are just 14%.
2. Dylan Harper, Guard, Rutgers
Based on my very early impressions, the list of guys in this draft who I think have the goods to be a lead creator on a good team is two players long. Flagg’s the clear top guy, but Harper would be a pretty awesome consolation prize. He doesn’t have Flagg’s elite athleticism, but the craft he’s shown on the way to averaging 20-5-4 on 59.5% true shooting this year is really exciting if you’re hoping Harper can one day guide a good NBA offense. A Harper-Quickley back court in support of Barnes in a traditional power wing role is damn interesting to think about, especially if the Raptors are able to find a high end wing defender in the next couple years to round it all out.
3. Ace Bailey, Forward, Rutgers
Bailey seems like he’ll be one of the more polarizing guys in this class all the way between now and draft night. I think I’m gonna end up in the “pro” camp. His shot selection is totally bonkers, and he really seems to have trouble turning the corner and getting to the rim. So yeah, there are a lot of ways in which it doesn’t work out, and if he was an all-offense type of prospect, I think I’d definitely be out. But I buy Bailey as a defender. At 6'10 with legit movement shooting juice, long arms and some obvious defensive talent even if it hasn’t been fully tapped into by the Rutgers coaching staff, I’m a believer in Bailey having “one of the better role players in basketball” as a reasonably likely career outcome, with more to offer if he ever learns to, you know, pass the ball once in a while. “What if Michael Porter Jr. could move laterally” is a thought I’ve had to myself watching Bailey’s work. That’s a really valuable player if it all hits.
4. Asa Newell, Big, Georgia
Sometimes you just gotta plant a flag when you’re buying what a prospect is selling, and I think Newell’s gonna be one of those types of guys for me. The 6'11 big man is putting up 15-7-1 with 2.2 stocks a game on 62% true-shooting as a freshman for the Bulldogs, dropping in 63.2% of his twos. Even if his three-point shot never irons itself out fully, I think Newell ends up as a very good vertical defense-and-dive big man sort of in the Dereck Lively II vein, which makes him a ready-made platoon partner for Jakob Poeltl, and eventually a long-term successor. It all gets very interesting if the threes start to go down. He’s shooting just under 32% on a couple attempts a game this season, which isn’t amazing or anything, but he’s skilled enough that it doesn’t feel like a pipe dream to think it can improve to a league-average-ish level, making him one of the most hard-to-find and desirable player archetypes in basketball: a rim protecting big man with stretch who can play either the four or five. I’m hopping on the Newell wagon. Join me, won’t you?
5. Kasparas Jakučionis
Illinois’ bad-ass freshman guard has what you might call “The Sauce.” Jakučionis is just a cool player, who bangs pull-up triples, throws extremely rad passes and crafts his way to ridiculous efficiency. If you think there’s a third guy in this class who can be a leading offensive engine, this is probably him. I’m certainly not out on that idea, and I could very well move him up by the time all is said and done. You can’t teach the kind of feel he has.
Where I can’t quite get there with him is the athleticism. Will his package of off-beat handles, head and ball fakes and intricate footwork produce the same sort of results against NBA level defenders? I think it’s a fair question. If he can’t quite reach “clearly effective lead offensive hub” status, he’ll join a bunch of current Raptors on a similar run on the NBA ladder. Of all the guys listed here, Jakucionis is the guy I’m most interested in watching down the stretch of the college season.
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Today on the podcast went a little deeper on my early draft top-five and talked about a pretty ugly loss to the Bucks on Friday. Enjoy the show!
