It’s always risky, doubting the Celtics. Not for Celtics fans, but for the rest of us. On Friday night, at home, Boston fans booed their team as they let the Kings take an uncontested rebound and take (then make) the same 3-point attempt. The Celtics lost, recording their 11th of the season. That’s only four games more than this time last year.
Going back, Boston recorded most of their losses last season in the winter stretch leading up to All-Star Weekend, the same stretch they’re in now. I would chalk a lot of those losses up to fatigue and deft competition who could sense the Celtics easing up on the gas, if briefly. The Nuggets, Bucks, Cavaliers and (then) white hot Pacers took advantage of those minor slumps. The losses now, though coming this season within the same stretch with the same fatigue taking a portion of the toll, have to do more with opponents figuring out how the Celtics tick.
This season, the Celtics are a known quality. Their brand of basketball last year overwhelmed the majority of their opponents, teams not built to withstand a barrage of incessant 3-point shooting backed by a quick and smothering defence without a moment to recalibrate or catch their breath. Most teams spent entire games, and all their energy, trying to chase Boston off the line. This season the Celtics have slipped to a 7th overall (from 3rd) defensive rating, and are currently 3rd overall (from 1st) in offence — teams have figured them out.
Those adjustment are also not by accident. The shot-for-shot, aim to out-firepower efforts like the Nuggets put forth last year weren’t going to cut it. The Celtics have shown that they can’t be outdone when it comes to pure shooting volume. Instead, it’s switchy, lineup fluid teams like the Thunder, teams that have outside shooting and excel in close quarters and the communication it requires to keep the ball moving at all times like the Cavs — these are the groups that match perfectly against this season’s Celtics.
Even the Rockets, with their physicality, relentless drive to overwhelm with the small, intangible elements a defending title contender might just overlook, have a formula to tire out Boston in a long series.
Where my doubt creeps in, with the caveat that it’s still minimal, is how well the Celtics will be able to adjust to the teams adjusting to them. Boston still fare poorly against tenacious teams, teams able to flummox and annoy them, who play any-means-necessary basketball. The Thunder, Rockets and Grizzlies all play that way, and all sit at the top of the West. In the East, while much more cool and confident than they’ve been in past seasons, the Cavs still know how to pressure — Kenny Atkinson revels in the adjustment game, especially in capitalizing on the strong suits of his players through their individual matchups.
There’s plenty of runway left in the regular season for Boston, behemoth that it is, to swing itself back in the other direction. Winning teams talk a lot about rhythm, and peaking at the right time, and the Celtics know intuitively that feelings. Still, the field isn’t as wide open this year and for the most part the “upstarts” have proven to be real deal, capable contenders.
Once we get out of the weeds of the trade deadline, it’s going to be a fun rest of the season.
