Star players all assume unique forms. It’s what makes them stars, and what makes basketball interesting. Some Dudes lean on their scoring, others brute strength and general everywhere-ness, and for some it’s the pass. But all bona fide franchise faces share one trait: their teams win minutes when they play.
Over the past two seasons, the Raptors have always been better when Barnes plays vs. when he sits, but they’ve not necessarily been good.
Last year, his on/off differential was +7.0, but really, what’s the difference between getting outscored by 10 points per 100 possessions, as was the case in Barnes’ minutes, or by 17? No matter how you slice it, the Raptors were awful last season, and Barnes’ contributions didn’t really help change that. Toronto was a +3.2 per 100 with him on in 2022-23, but all that team’s starters drove positive minutes while playing together, and saw those cushions erased by miserable reserve crews.
On a summer podcast a few months back I said that one of the most critical stats to monitor this season would be whether or not the Raptors win the minutes Barnes plays. Scoring jumps and assist upticks are nice and all, but differential splits come as close to any numbers we have to telling us which guys have star-level impact. If you, like the Raptors franchise, are all-in on Barnes becoming one of the league’s best, you’re heavily invested in whether Barnes’ minutes correlate to winning hoop. Since he returned from injury, the underlying numbers are pointing right where you want them to.
Over the last nine games, the Raptors have a +2.6 NET Rating with Scottie on the floor, and are -13.4 per-100 when he rests. The team’s offense is respectable with Barnes at the wheel — a 111.7 offensive rating, equivalent to 18th in the league, and in shouting difference of top-half quality. Without him, they drop below The Wizards Line, and by a lot; the Raptors aren’t even scraping out a full point per possession with Barnes sitting since his return. Defensively, the Raptors are Top-10 good with Barnes playing (109.1 DRTG), and middling without.
In short: Scottie Barnes makes the Raptors go.
Saturday’s loss to Dallas encapsulated the post-injury Barnes experience. In a game Toronto lost by seven, Barnes was a team-best +10 and looked every bit a game-controlling star, even sharing the floor with Luka Dončić. He finished up with 19 points and a career-best 14 assists, which is sure to get broken again this year at some point.
There’s a command to the way Barnes is guiding his team this season, and while his assists have only jumped by one a night over last season, it’s in the precision of his play making that you’re seeing the biggest step forward. Barnes has been slinging rad passes since he was a rookie, but this season they’ve got more intent behind them. He’s not rocketing no-look darts at unready teammates — a recurring bit from his first few years; there seems to be a growing understanding that not everyone sees the seams and angles that are so obvious to a savant like him. These aren’t audacious passes for audacious passes’ sake.
While he isn’t shooting at the rim in line with his career marks (just 24% rim frequency so far, never below 35% in his first three years), his drives are resulting in loads of paint touches that he’s parlaying into easy dimes as help defenders panic upon his approach.
Even if he’s not always the one potting the looks he creates, the breadth of his shot creation is wider-reaching than ever.
Per Cleaning the Glass, Barnes ranks in the 100th percentile among forwards in assist percentage (36.6%) and assist-to-usage ratio, while carrying the heaviest usage rate of his career (30.1%). This is a dude who’s using every neuron of his impressive basketball brain.
No, he’s not dropping 30-burgers every night, and the efficacy of his three-point shooting remains an open question — one Barnes is poking at a bunch right now. He may never be considered one of the league’s great scorers (though there’s some really interesting stuff happening in his mid-range game at the moment), and that’s OK, unless you think every superstar needs to fit in the same box.
Barnes’ archetype is one-of-one. The concept of Barnes as a selfless offensive engine flanked by dynamic play-finishers — an outline the Raptors have done a bang-up job in building, especially with a healthy Immanuel Quickley in fold — can absolutely produce winning basketball, while creating an environment that makes Barnes’ own avenues to scoring more unencumbered. Whatever the box score stats (and 22-9-9 since returning is nothing to sneeze at), Barnes’ minutes equal positive minutes for the Raptors right now. In a season full of exciting developments, “Scottie Barnes: Minutes Winner” is the most important one yet.
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Today on the podcast I’m joined by Vivek Jacob to recap the Raptors’ loss to the Mavericks on Sunday. Enjoy the show!
