The NBA season is officially under way. This of course means that the Memphis Grizzlies are back in action. tonight, in Utah against the Jazz, the “redemption tour” gets rolling.
Or is it the “revenge tour”? Regardless, meaningful basketball resumes tonight for Memphis. And with that comes excitement, as it always does this time of year at “Grizzmas”.
But nerves accompany the return of Grizzlies basketball as well. For the reality is, it’s time for the team to return to competitiveness. There’s no suspension hovering over the organization for their superstar. No “major’ injury that would hamper long-term expectations...
That’s the word, isn’t it? Expectations. When the team is down a Morant or Bane for extended times, every win or even gritty defeat gets appreciated differently. But now Memphis is back where they belong - ranked more often than not by NBA prognosticators among those who should be a top-4 team in the Western Conference.
Gritty defeats will still have a place...but not as often. Wins will be what fans and pundits expect to see more of. But what is the peak and valley of the upcoming campaign?
Best case scenario
Memphis has five Awards finalists - Ja Morant (MVP), Desmond Bane (Most Improved) Jaren Jackson Jr. (Defensive Player of the Year), Zach Edey (Rookie of the Year), and Head Coach Taylor Jenkins (Coach of the Year). This would almost certainly mean the Grizzlies are the #1 seed in the Western Conference. It would also probably mean some things went terribly wrong for other contenders.
Special seasons usually happen when preparation meets opportunity - i.e., when luck is involved. For the Grizzlies to top the conference and head to the NBA Playoffs, the Thunder (or Suns or Mavericks or Timberwolves) would likely have stumbled in some way.
Which would mean a clearer path to the NBA Finals than expected, given the difficult nature of the Western Conference.
Which would mean a possible NBA Finals appearance, probably against the Boston Celtics. And win or lose, the best season in Memphis Grizzlies history.
That, of course, would be awesome. It also unfortunately is not as likely as...
Worst case scenario
Two (or more) of the big three miss significant amounts of time. Zach Edey winds up actually being that bust of a pick that some wild hot takers said he’d be. Marcus Smart is washed, until he’s traded for pennies on the dollar to a contender and experiences a renaissance. Development is stunted, the new offensive scheme stalls out, Memphis misses the play-in much less the playoffs.
Jenkins gets fired. The Grizzlies enter a fairly uncertain offseason.
The good news? While the bottom falling out due to history of injury issues (and the fact even now Memphis isn’t healthy) may be the most likely of the two options listed, the REAL most likely scenario is likely in between. And closer to the best than the worst.
As long as Ja Morant is around, the Grizzlies have a chance. And that makes the start of this season far better than the last one in and of itself.
