There’s a distinct difference between the version of the Raptors we saw play without Scottie Barnes down the stretch last season, and the one we’re slated to see over the coming weeks.
Jakob Poeltl is healthy, and playing some really good ball.
Poeltl, maybe even more than Barnes, spelled the end of the Raptors’ chances of playing normal basketball in March and April 2024 when he went out of the lineup for the final 20 games. Barnes is the team’s best and most talented player, but no one sets the baseline for competent Raptors hoop quite like Poeltl, whose screening, rim-protection, interior touch, rebounding, connective passing, creative passing and general air of steadiness (shall I go on?) create the canvass upon which good things happen for this team.
He’s not the only pillar who should help keep the Raptors from totally crumbling while Barnes is sidelined. RJ Barrett’s efficiency cannot be slowed, seemingly even as a greater playmaking burden is placed on his shoulders. Gradey Dick has been a plus/minus darling in the early going, and is setting new career-highs for sport. Eventually, Immanuel Quickley will return, his much-needed three-point juice and ball security in tow. But none support the payload of Poeltl, as we witnessed on Wednesday night in Charlotte.
20 points, 16 boards, two assists, two steals, 71% shooting and a +25 in 35 minutes in a game the Raptors lost by five tells the whole Poeltl story.
We’re still in the dreaded Small Sample Zone, but even just five games in, extremes can be informative. Poeltl’s impact has been extreme.
Toronto has the seventh-worst non-garbage time point differential in basketball per Cleaning the Glass. Protracted over the full season, it’s the margin of a 23 or 24 win team (that Cavs game is gonna taint these numbers for a while). With Poeltl on the floor, Toronto is playing just a smidge below even; a near-500 team. They’re 21.3 points per 100 possessions better when he’s playing than when he’s not, mirroring a trend in his on/off splits that’s held up more or less since he arrived back in Toronto at the 2023 deadline. The highlight of the Raptors’ early-season stat profile is their status as the number on rebounding team in the league. Poeltl’s gigantic fingerprints are all over that metric, too.
Barnes being out for the next month or so will sap the Raptors of their ceiling. They’re probably not gonna trade haymakers with contenders or emerge with a surprisingly strong record. But they will not be the developmental wasteland the team was down the stretch of last season as long as Poeltl is bringing the lunch pail each day.
There will surely be calls to trade the big man as the Raptors’ loss counter ticks up and the inevitability of a high lotto finish sets in, because that’s apparently the only way some corners of NBA fandom can engage with the sport. That would, frankly, be an idiotic thing for the Raptors to do without a proper succession plan (picks and prospects are not that). For a team dealt a miserable hand to start the year on the health front, so much of the truly important stuff has already gone right. To deal Poeltl would be to take many needless steps back. A development-first ethos, rebuilding the foundation and standard of play, and jumping into next season with actual ambitions all depend on having a guy like Poeltl to prop the whole thing up. He’s not a perfect center, but he’s the one they have, and his value to this team is about to become clearer than ever in the next few weeks.
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Today on the podcast I went solo to break down the Raptors’ 138-133 loss to the Charlotte Hornets on Wednesday, with thoughts on some awesome play by Poeltl, Dick and Barrett, the rookies, Davion Mitchell and more. Enjoy the show, and Happy Halloween!
