Three new rules for NBA title contention

Okay, these have been the rules all along

Make a defensive scheme your own

The Nuggets did it (Nikola Jokic did it), the Warriors did it (the death lineup and defensive efficiency), the Celtics did it (switching one through five, pre-switching, neutralizing open lanes), and now the Thunder are doing it.

It’s been described as pestering, smothering, swarming, but I‘d like to put “car wash” into consideration. That’s the set up awaiting opponents. The car (the opposing team) gets locked into those self-driving tracks and the gauntlet begins. Lu Dort and Alex Caruso appear as those cylindrical spinning brushes, stripping the ball outright and early or else funnelling players into the next wave of guards. Pressure continues from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jaylen Williams but it becomes more targeted, thinking of the jet streams of water now being directed at the car from every angle — and those spinning whirlwinds of Caruso and Dort haven’t relented.

If, somehow, an opposing player finds a sliver of daylight in the so-small-its-micro-ball switching scheme the Thunder are playing, if they manage to get out from the many hands reaching in, pressuring, forcing turnovers, then they will meet Chet Holmgren at the rim. Holmgren is like those long, slapping shammy tentacles that come down on the hood, sides and roof of the car from every angle, though his reach and hands are much more expertly deployed. The Thunder have a defensive rating of 96.5 (for context the Warriors, at second best, seem light-years behind with a respectable 103.8) and lead the league in steals (13.4) and blocks (7.3). The cars are coming out spotless, utterly worked.

Staying power

This point has been used against the Thunder’s aforementioned defensive efforts, because the criticism is that the team won’t be able to sustain this level of laser-focused, all hands on deck effort for an entire season, or against real contenders. To this I’ll offer: their age.

The Thunder are a young team — perennially young because we’ve been hearing about how young they are, “too young”, for seasons — and they have the stamina for this. It’s why it’s working so well. Dort and Caruso also only play this brand of basketball, so as twin, hounding engines, that helps. The Cavaliers are similarly young, and now with two tastes of playoff failure to temper that speed some. The Celtics are experts at workaday excellence. The Warriors have been here many times before.

Longevity is learned in the NBA as much as its optimized through health, which is optimized through rotations, rest, and playing smart.

Foresight

Not in terms of psychic abilities, but something more practical, albeit trickier. The ability to take stock of the landscape of the league at various points of the season and adjust without losing sight of the end goal. Without being swayed by recency. For the teams already mentioned, plus the Suns, Knicks, Mavs, Nuggets and Pacers, that goal is a title. To get there, they can neither get too high or low on their chances given the prevailing winds and micro trends that inevitably emerge throughout a season.

Injuries upend, teams get hot, travel wears, the season grows long — these are all inevitabilities in the ecosystem of the NBA, players get it. The sample size at present, while small, is still telling. In yesterday’s newsletter Mike Shearer pointed out the season is already 10% finished. What we’ve been seeing, in terms of playing style and schemes, is now the sample size. The test group. The trick for coaches and their players is to adjust where necessary, allow for rest (“rest” shouldn’t ever be a bad word in pro sports, but I digress), contain and aid team chemistry, ride out the ego rattling that will come into play through the In-Season Tournament, All-Star, and the internet, and stick to the plan. Hold to the rhythm.

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