1) Jalen Suggs gets extended for four years, $125 million
Paying $30M+ annually for a player who only averaged tween points last year may sound ludicrous, but Suggs was an All-Defensive player who canned 40% of his triples on nearly seven attempts per 36 minutes. That combination of defense and shooting volume is extremely rare, making it extremely valuable.
As a point of reference, Jaden McDaniels extended last year for five years and $136 million. This contract will be bigger than that, given teams’ greater understanding of the new CBA and Suggs’ more prolific three-point shooting.
Suggs will also take the offense’s reins to a far larger degree in the absence of Markelle Fultz. There will be some growing pains, and his turnovers are a number to watch, but he should boost his box score profile this season with more on-ball time. That, in turn, will bring more negotiating ammo.
There are some risks. If the Magic get off to a slow start or don’t take the next step they’re expecting, Suggs may get squeezed in restricted free agency after the team has already committed so much money to the rest of the rotation. And Suggs struggled with health for the first two years of his career — his rough-and-tumble play style lends itself to nagging injuries.
However, Suggs has the perfect skill set to play with any teammate at any time. Given how much Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have the rock, Suggs’ ability to play off the ball is crucial to Orlando’s success. Even if the contract eventually proves too rich for the Magic’s taste, he will be a coveted trade chip at virtually any price for future contenders who are willing to stomach a high tax bill.
Smarter people than me predict a significantly lower number is coming, but I have a hunch about this one. This is my third year doing unlikely-but-plausible predictions, and salaries are pretty much the only ones I consistently get right. The perception of 3-and-D-and-a-little-more players hasn’t quite caught up to the market reality. Suggs is getting paid paid.
2) We get a record-low number of free throws
This one isn’t nearly as bold as it might sound, but I want to make a point.
A common complaint about basketball is the number of free throws that teams, particularly star players, shoot, but we’re actually in a Golden Era of watchability from that perspective. Last year, teams averaged the second-lowest number of free throw attempts per 100 possessions in Basketball-Reference’s database, which goes back to 1973-74. (The COVID-shortened season of 2020-21 was a hair lower.)
In general, we’ve been in a time of declining freebies since a peak in 2005-06. That trend holds in absolute terms, too: teams also averaged the second-lowest raw free throw attempts per game (behind just 2017-2018).
Last year’s free throw attempt rate was even lower than that after the NBA quietly changed its rules, so if the league maintains its more physical standard, as Indiana coach Rick Carlisle just suggested, the record will be shattered. The NBA has a long history of implementing rule changes that make a big initial impact before leveling off, but nobody likes watching free throws. I’m optimistic this change persists, and we will see a new record low for trips to the charity stripe.
3) The Blazers press 10% of the time
Portland’s defense was a relative bright spot last season (almost anything shines compared to that grimy, grimy offense), ranking 23rd in the league in points per possession on Synergy’s leaderboard.
Part of their extremely modest success was a reliance upon unusual defenses: they ranked third in zone frequency and first in full-court presses, which sort of worked? The Blazers have the personnel to play havoc in passing lanes and apply tremendous ball pressure. Matisse Thybulle led the league in deflections last year, and rising second-year player Toumani Camara is a bear trap with a 7’1” wingspan who began the year by pressing more often by himself than nearly a third of the league’s teams. Big men unaccustomed to backcourt ball pressure had no chance.
Synergy doesn’t count presses the same way Second Spectrum does, but it still lists Portland as pressing 7.2% of the time — that’s more than any other team in its database, which dates back to the 2008-09 season. Portland’s presses only gave up .94 points per possession, far below their overall defensive mark of 1.05.
NBA ballhandlers and passers can break presses fairly easily; Portland’s gimmickry may backfire now that NBA teams expect it. It’s also exhausting to run regularly, requiring a level of conditioning and defensive depth that few teams have. But I’m guessing Portland’s struggles to score (which should be immense) may encourage coach Chauncey Billups to turn the heat up even more.
The selection of rookie mountain Donovan Clingan provides an imposing last line of defense, which could enable the Blazers to play more aggressively up top, and the trade for Deni Avdija provides another high-level defender on the wing to pair with Camara, Thybulle, and perpetual trade candidate Jerami Grant. With guards Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Anfernee Simons still weak links on that end, Billups may shrug and tell his guys to pick up 94 feet even more often.
Truthfully, this prediction has almost no chance of coming through for me, but I enjoy watching Trail Blazers hounding ballhandlers full court. This is more about what I want to happen than what I think will happen. Portland’s defense is one of the more unusual watches in the NBA, and they may lean even more into that identity this year.
4) Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware combine for five 3PA/game
Bam says his goal is at least 100 three-point attempts next season, but I think he aims higher (Bam shot nine in just 97 Olympic minutes and five in his first preseason game). Let’s mark him down for 2.5 per game. That means rookie Kel’el Ware would need to average 2.5 per game, a steep figure for someone who might only play 20 minutes per night and averaged just 1.5 per game in his college career.
But I’m sticking with it! Coach Erik Spoelstra has stated that the offense needs to innovate after years of being the albatross on Burnie’s neck, and nothing would be a more welcome change than Adebayo and Ware notching some triples. Jimmy Butler’s presence, a boon in so many ways, requires more shooting from other positions. Finding another stretch big capable of holding their own defensively (sorry, Kevin Love) would breathe new life into a stagnant Miami attack.
If either Miami big proves to be a threat from deep, pairing them becomes far more palatable. A Butler/Adebayo/Ware frontline would be ferocious defensively, even with Miami’s poor guard defenders. Add Haywood Highsmith at the two-spot, and the Heat have an absolutely vicious lineup with more hypothetical shooting than you’d expect.
I believe Miami will dip an entire foot into the three-point waters early in the season; there’s been too much smoke not to see at least a little flame. If either or both players can stretch the floor, the Heat might throw themselves in the deep end.
